928
FXUS62 KMHX 081330
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
930 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast
through midweek before the next front approaches and interacts
with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing increased
precipitation chances late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 AM Monday...Although there has been little change in
the overall pattern across the region since yesterday, there are
several subtle indications which support the contention that
there will be less coverage of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening. Analysis of the 12Z upper air
data showed a persistent region of lower dewpoints in the
925-700 MB layer across eastern NC vs areas to the west which is
likely due to subsidence. Forecast MUCAPES are also lower than
yesterday (2500-3000 J/kg Sunday and 1500-2000 J/kg today). The
CAM`s across the board reflect this as they all are forecasting
much less coverage in diurnal convection this afternoon into
evening. Thus feel comfortable in limiting PoPs to 20-40% which
is at or slightly below climo.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
late morning through the afternoon with daytime heating,
initiating along the sea breeze and other lingering boundaries
across the region. The airmass remains very moist with PW values
around 2.25" which could lead to locally heavy rainfall once
again aided by slow storm motion due to very weak steering
currents. The severe threat is limited with very little shear
and moist adiabatic sounding profiles with MLCAPE lower than the
previous couple of days.

Temps will be quite oppressive with dewpoints remaining in the
mid 70s. Low level thicknesses have changed little from
yesterday and expect highs inland in the lower 90s and mid to
upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will top out around 100
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate
across inland areas through the evening with loss of heating
but are expected to continue off the coast near the Gulf Stream.
Very muggy conditions persist with lows generally in the mid
70s

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Typical summertime pattern expected
through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week
and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler
late week. Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each
afternoon through mid week.

Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the
upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven
showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect
convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with
better chances for more widespread coverage late week into the
weekend. Another front will approach late week into the weekend,
possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it
then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of
Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance for sea breeze
related convection through Wednesday, but continued the
increasing PoP trend for Thursday and Friday with Likelies in
the forecast. At this time it looks like the lack of shear
should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the
period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this
could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead
to minor flooding concerns as storm motions are expected to be
relatively slow, particularly through Wednesday. Temps look to
be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 725 AM Monday...Generally VFR conditions this morning but
some shallow nuisance fog mainly across southwest rtes bringing
occasional MVFR conditions, however operational impacts will
likely be minimal. Could also see occasional MVFR cigs through
the morning as LCLs rise with a very moist airmass in place.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across rtes
late this morning through the afternoon which will bring
occasional sub-VFR conditions as well. Storms will dissipate
through the evening with loss of heating but could see shallow
fog or perhaps stratus develop across portions of the area
overnight once again.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through
the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 930 AM Monday...High pressure off the coast will produce
S to SW winds generally less than 15 kt across the waters with
seas 2-4 ft through tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Monday...Overall pleasant boating conditions
expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern
continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
Thursday-Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...JME/SK/RJ