Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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067 FXUS62 KMHX 020134 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 934 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north the rest of today and remain over the area through Wednesday. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 730 PM Monday...No major changes to the forecast. Showers all well offshore at this point as the front moves further away to our SE. Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Mon...Cool high pressure will continue to build in from the north tonight with skies remaining mostly clear. Though there will be a little bit of wind, especially along the coast, expect strong cooling tonight which will allow for temps to dip down into the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Mon...A much deserved seasonable, sunny, and low humidity day expected tomorrow with high pressure continuing to ridge into the region from the north. High temps will be several degrees below normal with readings reaching the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Mon... KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler than average temps are forecast on Wed - Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend Wed...Upper troughing will be located offshore at the start of the period and continue to push E`wards further into the Atlantic while upper ridging continues to build over the Southeast Wed. At the surface, high pressure gradually slides E`wards into the Atlantic on Wed turning winds to the E and then SE by Wed afternoon as fair weather continues across the area. Highs get into the 80s with lows in the the 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 60s, it will feel much more comfortable outside through midweek. Thurs through the weekend... Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end of the week allowing return flow and moisture return to resume across ENC. As mentioned above, temps will steadily warm into the weekend allowing oppressive heat and humidity to return to ENC starting on Fri and persisting into the end of the weekend. Otherwise climatological avg precip chances will resume starting this weekend as well with at least a chance for some shower and tstm development each afternoon along the seabreeze. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18Z Tue/... As of 730 PM Mon...VFR conditions persist through the short term. High pressure will build south over eastern NC tonight and Tuesday resulting in VFR conditions and light winds through Tuesday. Overnight there will be enough low level mixing to preclude fog while the low levels are forecast to be too dry to support low stratus cloud formation despite easterly flow. Diurnal Cu tomorrow should remain VFR, at 5-6kft and be scattered in nature. LONG TERM /Tue night through Saturday/... As of 3 PM Mon... Primarily VFR conditions forecast through the period with light winds as high pressure settles in across the Eastern Seaboard. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 930 PM Monday...Dropped the SCA for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Duck with seas falling to 4-5 feet and gusts generally below 20 kts. As of 3 PM Mon...SCAs will continue through most of tonight as strong NE persists in the wake of a cold front. Winds are currently N/NE at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, and are expected to continue at this strength for the first half of tonight. Thereafter, winds will begin to weaken and become mostly NE 10-20 kts by tomorrow morning. Seas have climbed quickly in response to the strong NE winds and remain 4-6 ft (highest north of Cape Hatteras). Seas will remain nearly steady through around midnight, and then will gradually diminish overnight, becoming 3-5 ft tomorrow. LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... As of 315 PM Mon...Mostly benign boating conditions are forecast for the period. High pressure ridging continues to gradually push E`wards across the area Tuesday night, relaxing the gradient with winds easing to 5-15 kts while becoming more E`rly by Wed morning. Winds continue to remain light and veer to the SE and eventually the S on Thurs as ridging becomes centered to the E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and Thurs down to 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-152-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ SHORT TERM...SGK/RJ LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...RCF/RJ MARINE...SGK/RCF/RJ