271
FXUS62 KMHX 132007
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
407 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front located along the Coastal Plain will gradually weaken and
dissipate through early next week. Prior to the fronts dissipation,
moist southerly flow will continue to bring periods of rain through
Monday. Hot and humid conditions and heat indices in excess of 105
degrees return starting tomorrow with the next significant front
making its way into the area by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Overall not much change in the forecast through
tonight. Temps have gotten into the 80s and with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s temps feel like 100-105 this afternoon. In
addition to this, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to persist over the next few hours especially across
the Coastal Plain up towards the NOBX as a stalled front which
is currently located over the Coastal Plain remains over the
area. Given PWAT`s well above 2 inches this afternoon any
shower or thunderstorm could produce torrential downpours,
though with a faster storm motion thinking the flash flooding
threat will remain very low through the remainder of the
afternoon.

Showers and storms quickly dissipate across the Coastal Plain after
sunset, and have kept a mainly dry fcst overnight for inland
locations. Can`t rule out scattered showers and storms along the
coast and OBX as guidance has hinted at activity sticking around
these areas. The biggest challenge for tonight will be the cloud
cover forecast as recent guidance suggests we will clear out
across areas west of Hwy 17 with partly to mostly cloudy skies
possible east of Hwy 17. This will lead to at least a threat for
some patchy fog across our western zones and have since added
some patchy fog into the forecast. Will have to watch trends
this evening however as this is a low probability event.
Regardless, with HREF probs of 20-40% across portions of
Martin, Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir County for visibilities of less
than 5 miles felt best chance for fog would be here. Warm and
very muggy once again tonight with lows in the mid/upr 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Front remains stalled along the Coastal Plain on
Sunday which will lead to isolated to widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development in the afternoon once again. However with
the front weakening, coverage should be much less than in
previous days and cloud cover should be reduced. As a result
the area is forecast to be quite a bit warmer on Sunday with
high temps forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s across
ENC. With dewpoints not changing much and remaining in the mid
to upper 70s, the feels like temperatures will likely increase
to 102-108F resulting in the potential for widespread heat
related impacts. Given the current forecast would not be
surprised if heat advisories would be needed in coming updates
for at least portions of the Coastal Plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...

- Monday through Wednesday heat indices of 105-110 degrees are
  possible each day. Tuesday expected to be the hottest day.
  Some relief for the end of the week.

-Wet again for the back half of the week as rain chances begin to
ramp up on Wednesday and remain high through Friday.

Beginning Sunday extreme heat will become the biggest threat in the
forecast. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland with
upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will push or
exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations except the extreme
coastal areas. At this point, Tuesday looks like the hottest day
with heat index values approaching 110 degrees which is excessive
heat warning criteria.

More certainty for the back end of the week than last night at this
time as solutions are starting to settle on a front moving into
eastern NC and stalling for the back end of the week and into next
weekend. PW values return to greater than 2 inches on Wednesday and
remain there through the forecast period. The greatest instability
will be on Wednesday when the combination of still higher
temperatures and increased moisture yields surface based CAPE Values
between 1000-2000 J/Kg. Shear however will be lacking so any thunder
will be instability driven. After Wednesday temperatures cool enough
to reduce CAPE values some and shear remains weak. Therefore once
again heavy rain will be the greatest threat during this period.
Temps during this time will moderate into the mid 80s to near 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sun morning/...
As of 115 PM Sat...Conditions have become a mix of MVFR and VFR
ceilings this afternoon as lower clouds and scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms persist across ENC. Expect
continued scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
to persist over the next several hours before diminishing as
daytime heating ends. Have included VCTS across ISO/PGV TAF
sites for the next 2-3 hours given current radar trends and
just VCSH across OAJ/EWN. Currently not enough coverage to
preclude more than a vicinity mention. Otherwise, expect any
ongoing MVFR ceilings to finally raise to VFR around 4-6kft this
afternoon. As we get into tonight clouds look to scatter out
and become more high based with ceilings moving above 10 kft
tonight. However patchy fog may begin to develop with Hi-res
model suite suggesting areas around PGV/ISO seeing some
reduction in visibility. Given HREF probs of 20-40% have elected
to leave fog out of the TAF`s for now but it could be included
in future TAFs. If the area does see patchy fog it would most
likely occur after 06Z and dissipate around 12Z. Expect VFR
conditions and light winds through the remainder of the TAF
period barring any fog development.

LONG TERM /Sunday afternoon through Wed/...
A drier period for much of the aviation long term with
predominately VFR conditions. Exceptions to this could be with
overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10
kts through much of the period. Rain chances will increase on
Wednesday and along with it the chance for sub-VFR periods.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 340 PM Sat...Have ended the ongoing SCA`s this afternoon
as ambient winds have eased and seas have fallen below 6 feet
across our coastal waters this afternoon. Current obs show
S-SSW`rly winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20 kts and 3-5
ft seas across our waters. Winds will change little through
tonight and become more SW-W`rly Sunday while easing slightly,
closer to 5-10 kts. Seas will change little through the period
resulting in rather benign boating conditions. The one caveat
to this is continued isolated to widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity which is forecast through Sunday evening.
Locally enhanced winds and seas would be possible within any
thunderstorm that moves over the waters.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Tuesday/...Fairly quiet start
to the long term for Marine conditions with southwesterly winds
at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. For the coastal waters seas
should remain between 3-4 feet through much of the long term
before rising to 5 feet near the end of the week. Rain chances
will increase from Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/RCF
MARINE...RTE/RCF