Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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336 FXUS62 KMHX 150509 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 109 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices in excess of 105 degrees last into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1020 PM Sun...Storms managed to hold on a bit longer than expected, but activity has ebbed considerably in the last hour and will continue to do so as temperatures fall. Dry conditions will prevail by midnight. Tonight will be warm and muggy yet again, with lows in the mid 70s inland, near 80 for beaches. Heat indices overnight will remain elevated along the coast, sitting between 85-90. Signal for fog has become much more muddled since the previous forecast, and although some patchy instances cannot be ruled out confidence is too low to explicitly mention in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Another hot and humid day in store, likely a few degrees warmer than what was experienced today as heat indices flirt with 110 degrees. Heat advisory has been issued for the entire CWA outside of coastal Dare and Hyde counties where indices are in the 100-105 range. Another day of high PWATs and ample instability will promote scattered showers along the sea breeze, but just like today limited shear will result in a low severe risk. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Sun...First part of the long term will be highlighted by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat indices between 105-115 degrees through mid week. Then, a cold front moves into the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and storms Wednesday into the end of the week. Monday night through Tuesday...Extreme heat will become the biggest threat for the beginning of the work week. Highs will be in the mid to some upper 90s interior, with around 90 coast. These temps combined with dewpoints between 75-80 will lead to dangerously high heat indices, with advisory criteria likely being met, though several hours of 110-115 degrees (excessive heat warning criteria) are possible as well. Wednesday through Saturday...More certainty for the back end of the week than last night at this time as 14/00Z model suite settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid through late week. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher on Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability will be high Wed through Fri (2000-4000 J/Kg), but shear very weak, so biggest threat from storms that develop will be wet microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously high heat indices. Pops peak on Thu in the 60% range, and capped at 50% for Fri into the weekend until mesoscale details become more clear, though it does appear pops will be above climo into the first part of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 00z Tues/... As of 1 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected to continue overnight. The fog signal continues to be weak, so no mention of decreased visibility is in the TAFs. Regardless of the weak fog signal in guidance, I think it`s still possible for some patchy fog or hazy conditions to develop given the humid air mass over ENC. Monday will present an opportunity for decreased visibility and ceilings with the development of afternoon convection. As was the case on Sunday, these storms could pack a punch with gusty winds (35-40 kt), heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. The severe threat is non-zero but low given a lack of wind shear. Conditions will recover to VFR once convective activity dies down. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sun...Mostly VFR through the period. Diurnal showers and storms for Mon and Tue, become more numerous Wed through the end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts through much of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... As of 345 PM Sunday...Generally quiet marine conditions persist through the short term. Seas are currently 2-4 feet, becoming 3-4 Monday afternoon. Winds are currently coming from the SW at 10-15 kts, but will pick up tomorrow afternoon/evening, gusting to 20-25 kts at times for coastal waters and the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Probability of gusts in excess of 25 knots remains low for Monday evening, and as a result have not issued a SCA with this update. LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sun...Fairly quiet start to the long term for Marine conditions with southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. Thermal gradient could bring some 25+ kt winds for the favored areas (Oregon Inlet/Croatan-Roanoke-Pamlico Sounds and Alligator River) by Tuesday afternoon and evening. For the coastal waters seas should remain between 3-4 feet through much of the long term before rising to 5 feet by midweek. Rain and storm chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/OJC MARINE...TL/RJ