114
FXUS62 KMHX 150830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
430 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last
into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Today will be the hottest and muggiest day of the week with
dangerous heat indices across the board. There is also a chance for
strong afternoon thunderstorms.

-DANGEROUS HEAT-

The "coolest" heat indices will be 100-108F along the OBX from
Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. These zones have been placed under a
Heat Advisory from 11A - 7P.

The rest of the FA will experience greater temps and dew points,
which will send heat indices into the 106-113F range. These areas
are under an Excessive Heat Warning from 11A - 7P.

-STRONG THUNDERSTORMS-

Most CAMs are showing convective initiation along the seabreeze this
afternoon around 2-3 PM. This later initiation will allow ample
surface heating and destabilization. 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and ~2.5"
PWAT will be supportive of strong pulse convection with the main
hazards of concern being gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. Although non-zero, a lack of deep layer shear will dampen
the severe threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 3:30 AM Sunday...Convective activity will decrease after
sunset but some isolated showers and storms could linger into the
evening. Lows remain warm overnight with temps only dropping to
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...First part of the long term will be
highlighted by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat
indices between 105-115 degrees. Then, a cold front moves into
the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and storms mid
to late week.

Tuesday...Dangerous heat and humidity will continue to be the
main threat. Highs will be in the mid to some upper 90s
interior, with around 90 coast. These temps combined with
dewpoints between 75-80 will lead to dangerously high heat
indices, with advisory criteria likely being met, though several
hours of 110-115 degrees (excessive heat warning) are possible
as well.

Wednesday through Sunday...More certainty for the back end of
the week than last night at this time as 15/00Z model suite
settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid
through late week. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher on
Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the
weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability
will be high Wed through Fri (2000-4000 J/Kg), but shear very
weak, so biggest threat from storms that develop will be wet
microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The
good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end
to the dangerously high heat indices. Pops peak on Thu-Fri in
the 60-70% range, and capped at high chc 50% on the weekend
until mesoscale details become more clear, though these pops are
still above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Tues/...
As of 1 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected to continue
overnight. The fog signal continues to be weak, so no mention of
decreased visibility is in the TAFs. Regardless of the weak fog
signal in guidance, I think it`s still possible for some patchy
fog or hazy conditions to develop given the humid air mass over
ENC. Monday will present an opportunity for decreased visibility
and ceilings with the development of afternoon convection. As
was the case on Sunday, these storms could pack a punch with
gusty winds (35-40 kt), heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.
The severe threat is non-zero but low given a lack of wind
shear. Conditions will recover to VFR once convective activity
dies down.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Mostly VFR through the period. Diurnal showers
and storms through Wed, become more numerous Thu through the
end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight
fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through
much of the period with gusts nearing 20 kt Tue and Wed
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Winds will be out of the SW at 15-20 kt
with a few gusts to 25 kt across the central waters and Pamlico
Sound this afternoon. Seas will be 3-4 ft through the period. Of
greatest concern are the 100+ heat indices and strong
afternoon/evening thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds,
heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Convection will be most
active across the rivers and sounds with weakening showers and
storms moving towards the coastal waters this evening. Special
Marine Warnings and Marine Weather Statements are possible.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Thermal gradient inc to 20-25 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt Tue into Wed, and have issued SCA for
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sound and the nrn/ctrl waters. Seas will
build to 4-6 by Wed. Rain and storm chances will increase from
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-
     193>196-198-199-203.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ135-150-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC