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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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718 FXUS62 KMHX 152345 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 745 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 740 PM Monday...Thunderstorm activity is quickly falling apart across portions of Duplin and Onslow counties this evening, but persistent boundary roughly along Highway 64 continues to be an efficient focal point for convective development as we watch a small but potent cell drifting into Washington County. With loss of heating instability will wane, but like last night storm activity may continue well after sunset. Extended PoPs for a few hours to account for this risk. Another sultry night on tap with lows in the upper 70s inland and around 80 along the coast. Apparent temperatures along the Outer Banks will struggle to fall below 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... KEY POINTS: -EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH issued for central portions of the CWA -HEAT ADVISORY issued for OBX, Crystal Coast, Coastal Onslow, and the Coastal Plain -Scattered thunderstorms, some of them strong in nature, possible in the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday brings conditions similar to today, although it will be a bit more windy and t-storm coverage along and ahead of the sea breeze will be a bit higher. Another hot, muggy day is in store, with forecasted heat indices approaching and possibly exceeding 110F. Will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Tuesday from inland Onslow Co. moving NE to Mainland Dare Co., with heat advisories in place for the remainder of the CWA. the excessive heat WATCH is due to the possibility of excessive heat WARNING level conditions in the region, with at least heat advisory criteria temps expected. The area under an advisory has less confidence for excessive heat warning level conditions, but still firmly in the advisory category. Some factors that could throw a wrench in this forecast are widespread convection earlier than expected, higher winds allowing more mixing, and decreasing dewpoints as we get into the afternoon, and cloud cover building from the west moderating temps. Storms can produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning as we have another high CAPE, high PWAT, low shear day. High temps in the mid to upper 90s inland, near 90 for beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 AM Mon...First part of the long term will be highlighted by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat indices between 105-115 degrees. Then, a cold front moves into the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and storms mid to late week. Tuesday night...Lows are near the climo max, and readings will only fall to around 80 for many areas, esp east of hwy 17. Wednesday through Sunday...More certainty for the back end of the week than last night at this time as 15/00Z model suite settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid week into the weekend. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher on Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability will be high Wed through Fri (2000-3000 J/Kg), but shear weak (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms that develop will be wet microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously high heat indices. Pops peak on Thu-Fri in the 60-70% range, and capped at high chc 50% on the weekend until mesoscale details become more clear, though should be noted that these vals are still above climo. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 00z Wed/... As of 745 PM Mon...Convective coverage quickly beginning to wane with VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals this evening. Still watching a near term convective risk mainly along Highway 64 for the next couple hours, mainly with a cell a few miles east of KMCZ, but this should avoid TAF terminals. Eventually, dry conditions win out overnight with VFR holding strong. If winds manage to decouple tonight, some brief patchy fog is possible. Confidence is too low to warrant explicitly forecast in TAFs. Summertime pattern continues tomorrow with convection redeveloping in the afternoon. Coverage will be a bit more widespread than yesterday, but storms will still pose the same risk of heavy rain and occasionally gusty winds. LONG TERM /Tuesday afternoon through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Mon...Mostly VFR through the period. Diurnal showers and storms through Wed, become more numerous Thu through the end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period with gusts nearing 20 kt Tue and Wed afternoon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/... As of 4 PM Monday...Winds will be out of the SW at 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt across the central waters and Pamlico Sound this afternoon. Seas are 3-4 ft, slowly building to 3-5ft Tuesday afternoon. Of greatest concern are the 100+ heat indices and strong afternoon/evening thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning both through this evening and tomorrow afternoon/evening. Convection will be most active across the rivers and sounds with weakening showers and storms moving towards the coastal waters this evening. Special Marine Warnings and Marine Weather Statements are possible. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Mon...Thermal gradient inc to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Tue night into Wed, and have issued SCA for Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sound and the nrn/ctrl waters. Seas will build to 4-6 by Wed. Rain and storm chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of the week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 07/15 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 98/1993 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 101/1932 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 97/1986 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 101/1993 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 101/1993 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ029-044- 079-090-091-195-196-199-203>205. Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150-231. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/MS MARINE...TL/RJ CLIMATE...MHX