Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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237 FXUS62 KMHX 161412 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1012 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon and early evening storms through today. More numerous showers and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1010 AM Tuesday...No major changes with this update. Brought temps for today down by 1-2 degrees, but still expecting impactful heat indices for much of the region. Previous Discussion...As of 6:30 AM Tuesday... -DANGEROUS HEAT- Another hot and muggy day with dangerous heat is in store. Inland Onslow, Jones, Craven, Pamlico, Beaufort, Mainland Hyde, Washington, Tyrrell, and mainland Dare Counties have been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for heat indices up to 113F. All other zones remain under a Heat Advisory for heat indices up to 109F. -STRONG THUNDERSTORMS- Today`s sources of forcing will be the seabreeze and the leeward trough across the Carolinas. Similarly to the past few days, the environment will be one of high MLCAPE (3000-5000 J/kg), high PWAT (2"), and weak shear (10-15 kt). The general consensus of the CAMs is that we`ll start with scattered coverage along the seabreeze. As we progress into the later afternoon and evening, coverage will increase from west to east and then diminish after sunset with the loss of heating. The lack of shear will keep storms disorganized and less-likely to become severe, but MLCAPE of this amount will provide ample fuel to support very electric storms and high PWATs could support quick downpours. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...Convective activity will decrease after sunset but some showers and storms could linger into the evening. Lows remain warm overnight with temps only dropping to around 80. The fog threat will be minimal with the boundary layer staying mixed with winds around 5-10 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 AM Tue...We will trade the intense heat for cooler weather due to clouds and scattered to numerous showers/storms in the long term. Wednesday...This will be a transition day to a more active pattern as ridge gets knocked down by approaching shortwave. Some morning showers and embedded storms on the coast will translate inland in the afternoon. Pops are in the 40-60% range, and increased cloud cover will knock temps back down to the lower 90s for highs. Heat adv criteria will be marginal, with some places perhaps reaching 105 degrees briefly. Breezy conditions will cont with the aforementioned shortwave keeping gradient pinched, esp for coastal counties where 20-30 mph gusts are expected. The strong onshore flow should preclude heat adv for being met in the coastal counties. Thursday through Friday...More certainty for the back end of the week as 16/00Z model suite cont to converge on active weather pattern as front moves into ENC and stalls. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher and remain there through the end of the week. Strong moisture convergence and good upr dynamics (ENC in right entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers and ocnl thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a `slight` risk for excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a whopping 17 g/kg or higher. For these reasons, have added heavy rain mention to fcst both Thur and Fri, centered during the daytime diurnal cycle when the heaviest showers and storms are expected. Instability goes down a bit (1000-2000 J/Kg), along with cont weak shear (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms that develop will be some iso strong wet microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously high heat/humidity. Saturday through Monday...Still looks to be cont active with quasi-stationary troughing over the TN/OH Valleys to Mid Atlantic, keeping ENC in favorable right entrance region of jet. NBM cont to indicate categorical pops through this whole period, though as is the case with convection, showers and storms will be on and off, so have 40-60% pops for the better part of the weekend into early next week until mesoscale details can be resolved, with highest pops focused on the diurnal cycle. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 00z Wed/... As of 6:30 AM Tuesday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the period. Another round of afternoon convection is on the table today with more widespread coverage than Monday. Again, some storms may be strong with gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The fog threat seems minimal tonight with the boundary layer likely staying mixed with 5-10 kt SW winds. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Tue...Diurnal showers and storms through Wed, become more numerous Thu through the end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period with gusts nearing 20 kt Wed afternoon. Periods of rain and low clouds will bring MVFR or lower cond. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...Winds remain out of the SW through the period but become progressively gustier. From this morning to this afternoon/evening, winds will ramp up from 10-15 kt to 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts. Seas increase from 3-4 ft today to 4-5 ft tonight. All sounds and coastal waters are under a SCA beginning this afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Tue...Gradient cont tight with sswrly 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt into Thu, and SCA`s cont for the coastal waters as well as Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Seas will build to 5-6 by later Wed and remain into Thu evening, when gradient relaxes and winds drop below 25 kt. Rain and storm chances will increase from Wednesday through the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044-079- 090-091-195-196-199-203>205. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/OJC MARINE...TL/OJC