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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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520 FXUS66 KMFR 072115 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 215 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .DISCUSSION...A strong high pressure ridge is centered over the area and will remain in place into Tuesday. The ridge axis gradually shifts eastward on Tuesday and moreso, on Wednesday, as a weak upper trough moves into the region from the northwest. Overall, there is high confidence that this pattern will bring continued very hot temperatures and very dry conditions through Tuesday. High daytime temperatures combined with abnormally warm overnight low temperature, will result in little relief heat. So excessive heat warnings (NPWMFR) are in place for inland areas west of the Cascades through Tuesday with heat advisories are areas east of the Cascades. This is a strong, long durations heat wave for early July with record high temperatures forecast today through Tuesday, including at Medford, Klamath Falls, Mount Shasta City and Alturas. High temperatures are forecast to be between 105 and 115 for inland valleys west of the Cascades and near 100 east of the Cascades. Even coastal areas will be above normal with high temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s through Tuesday. In addition to the heat, today there will be breezy to gusty late afternoon and evening winds across western and central potions of the area, including Douglas, Josephine, Jackson, western Siskiyou and Klamath counties. This combined with extreme heat and dryness will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Red flag warnings (RFWMFR) are in place today. Please see the fire weather discussion below for more details. On Tuesday, the ridge remains in place with the ridge axis beginning to shift slightly eastwards. There will also be a weak shortwave that moves up from the south. Models continue to show very little in the way of moisture with this disturbance to support any thunderstorm development. Currently we are forecasting continued dry weather. However, we will continue to monitor this period for any potential changes. On Wednesday, as the shortwave upper level trough moves into the Pacific northwest, north of the area, the ridge will weaken slightly. This will result in less hot (but still well above normal) temperatures across inland areas. Temperatures are likely to remain in the upper 90s to around 105 for inland valleys. With the trough nudging into the PacNW, we do expect an increase in west to northwest winds in the afternoon/evening. This pattern of ridging over the area with a weak trough to the north remains in place through late in the week. So expect continued above normal temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION...07/18Z TAFS...Patchy low clouds are expected to remain off the coast today, then areas of IFR/LIFR are forecast to move onshore tonight and early Monday morning. These conditions will mainly affect areas north of Cape Blanco and from Brookings south. Elsewhere, VFR is expected through the TAF period. -CC && .MARINE...Issued 2pm PDT Sunday July 7th 2024...The pattern will remain generally unchanged through mid week as high pressure remains offshore with low pressure inland and a weak thermal trough along the Curry county coast. Moderate north winds south of Cape Blanco will however expand northward across the outer waters Monday night and Tuesday. North winds are likely to increase across all waters Thursday and Friday as the thermal trough strengthens. -MTS && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 200 PM Sunday July 7, 2024...The main concern for this period remains heat, winds, low humidities and unstable conditions contributing to fire danger early this week. The combination of wind and low humidity is expected to reach critical conditions for inland areas along and east of the Interstate 5 corridor again today. Forecast humidities range from the upper single digits to low teens and winds range from sustained 6-12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. A red flag warning in in place today for portions of zones 616, 617, 620, 621, 622, 623, 624, and 280 for today. The main difference from Saturday is that winds are forecast to be weaker east of the Cascades. Given the on-going holiday weekend, and despite no lightning in the forecast, there will continue to be conditions favorable for the rapid spread of any new or existing fires, even in areas that are not currently under Red Flag Warnings. Particularly, brief or near critical conditions may occur in 281 and 282. Heading into Monday, a slight nudge lower of temperatures by a couple degrees, and similarly nudge lower of wind speeds is enough to make additional west side Red Flag conditions more of a borderline scenario. West side conditions will be mostly borderline again Tuesday, with similar low-end-breezy afternoon and evening winds with the exception a more impactful nudge higher in minimum relative humidity values from the coast across Douglas County. The same setup bringing the slight cooling and higher coastal moisture for Tuesday may also bring a few afternoon cumulus buildups for western Siskiyou and northern Klamath counties. By midweek, expect the edge to be taken off of the heat. Though no longer as extreme, expect temperatures to still be well above normal and accompanied by slightly stronger afternoon/evening winds. Instability with an accompanying risk of thunderstorms could develop east of the Cascades as early as Saturday. -BPN/DW && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ023>026. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ616-617- 620>624. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ029>031. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ083>085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. && $$ CC/CC/CC