640
FXUS62 KMFL 111908
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A transient upper low remains embedded in the synoptic scale
pattern. Meanwhile, the Saharan Air Layer will gradually diminish
as moisture advection begins to materialize. This will allow for
an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening compared to the past several days. With
very light steering flow, storm motion will be slow, with the
highest storm chances in areas where sea breeze convergent zones
and thunderstorm outflow boundaries interact. The proximity of the
mid-level low may provide additional mid to upper-level support
for strong thunderstorm development, especially across the Lake
Okeechobee region during the afternoon and evening. The strongest
thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and
heavy downpours. Localized flooding will remain possible due to
the slow storm motion combined with multiple rounds of heavy
downpours occurring over the same area. To round out the week,
remnants of the weak/decoupled upper low will linger over South
Florida. This will continue to foster the advection of deep
tropical moisture over the region. Boundary layer winds continue
to persist out of the ESE, generally favoring the greatest
convective activity over the interior and western portions of
South Florida. With H500 vorticity lobes hanging around aloft,
expect perhaps a little more synoptic forcing to allow for periods
of increased cloud coverage and light to moderate rainfall at
times, with deep convection (thunderstorms) embedded in the mix as
well. Overall, a fairly typical South Florida wet season day,
with localized flooding possibly being realized where the
thunderstorms are slow to move. High temperatures through the end
of the week will be warm as usual this time of year, ranging from
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight, mild low temperatures will
range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The synoptic weather pattern begins to change this weekend as the
aforementioned upper low slinks northward along towards the
Carolinas and weak ridging begins to build over the region.
Simultaneously, the western Atlantic high will start to build
towards the area. As a result, light easterly-southeasterly flow
will set up and the daily convective regime will be driven primarily
by sea breeze processes, with the East Coast sea breeze being
dominant under the ESE flow regime. Thus, isolated to scattered
showers will be possible every afternoon through the long term
period, starting near the East Coast metro areas in the late morning
period, then drifting inland in the afternoon. The likelihood of
stronger thunderstorms will not be high, but isolated stronger
storms cannot be entirely ruled out. These may contain gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavier downpours.

Daily high temperatures will be in the low 90s through the weekend
and the first half of next week, with isolated areas potentially
reaching the mid-90s. Overnight lows will primarily be in the 70s,
potentially creeping into the low 80s along the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually increase across the
area this afternoon, with periods of MVFR or IFR possible at any
terminals that are impacted. With weak west-southwest flow in
place and numerous showers and storms around, winds at the
terminals will be heavily driven by outflow and sea breeze
boundaries. Convective activity will gradually decrease late this
evening, before returning again Friday afternoon along with
generally southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A light to moderate WSW wind flow today will become more
southerly on Friday. These winds will then become ESE over the
upcoming weekend as high pressure becomes re-established over the
western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will
generally remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the week
and into the upcoming weekend. Scattered storms over the Gulf
Stream are expected each morning, eventually developing over the
Gulf waters in the evening hours. Thunderstorm coverage may
increase later this weekend and into early next week as tropical
moisture filters in over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  79  91 /  40  50  30  50
West Kendall     75  91  77  92 /  40  50  20  50
Opa-Locka        77  91  79  92 /  40  60  30  50
Homestead        77  90  78  90 /  50  50  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  78  88  80  90 /  40  50  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  80  91 /  40  60  30  50
Pembroke Pines   77  92  79  93 /  40  60  30  50
West Palm Beach  77  90  78  91 /  40  60  20  40
Boca Raton       77  90  79  92 /  40  50  30  40
Naples           79  89  78  93 /  40  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver/SRB
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Culver