547
FXUS62 KMFL 121154
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
754 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Today winds will shift to a more SSW flow, while sea breeze
again try to dominate the afternoon convective pattern. Model
soundings depict a rather overall weak mid/upper lvl synoptic
flow, along with relatively weak lapse rates. Thus, storm
cell motion will again be slow, or even stationary at times.
This may translate into a possible threat for localized
flooding, especially over locations already saturated with
previous rain. Highest POPs remain around 60 over much of
SoFlo, including the east coast metro areas.

On Saturday, the southern periphery of the Atlantic high
broadens and brings backing winds to the east, which should
favor a stronger east coast sea breeze early in the afternoon.
This should favor interior areas for deeper convection,
with the sea breezes and outflow boundaries becoming
focal points for thunderstorm activity. The aforementioned
stationary boundary and low remain in place, so their
influence could help in having a few strong to near severe
storms in the afternoon hours.

Temperatures remain warm each day with afternoon highs generally
in the low 90s. Overnight, mild low temperatures will range from
the low 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values will likely
hit triple digits each day, but remaining below 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Models further strengthen the high pressure over the
west Atlantic, while a low lingering over northern Florida
finally begins migrating northward. A sfc ridge also
expands across the area on Sunday. This brings a little
more stability and a slightly dryer airmass over SoFlo.

POPs decrease into the 40-50 percent range, with the East
Coast sea breeze becoming the primary driver of deeper
convection. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible each afternoon, starting over the East Coast
metro areas in the late morning/early afternoon, and then
pushing inland later in the afternoon. Warmer 500 mb temps
and the drier air will keep strong thunderstorm activity to
a minimum, but an isolated strong cell can`t be ruled out.

Temperatures remain around or slightly higher than normal,
with afternoon highs generally in the low 90s, with isolated
mid 90s over interior areas. Overnight lows should remain
in the mid-upper 70s, and around 80 near the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Generally VFR with bouts of sub-VFR due to rounds of convection. A
lull in showers and storms this morning will give way to
increasing activity with peak heating later today. Short-fused
AMDs for IFR/LIFR will likely be necessary. Activity should again
diminish late evening into the overnight. Another morning round of
showers and storms is possible Saturday. Light wind will lead to
some directional variability with gusty winds possible around
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Generally light to moderate south to southwesterly winds will
prevail today, then shifting back to a more easterly flow
by Saturday. High pressure strengthens over the western
Atlantic, with seas and wind speeds remaining well below
highlight criteria. Thus, in general, expect benign boating
conditions to prevail through early next week Only exception
will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm that forms, which
will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  91  82 /  70  30  70  40
West Kendall     90  76  91  79 /  70  30  70  40
Opa-Locka        91  78  92  81 /  70  30  70  40
Homestead        90  78  91  81 /  60  30  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  90  81 /  70  30  70  40
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  91  82 /  70  30  70  40
Pembroke Pines   93  78  93  81 /  70  30  70  40
West Palm Beach  90  78  91  80 /  70  30  60  30
Boca Raton       91  78  91  81 /  70  30  60  40
Naples           89  78  93  79 /  80  20  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...RAG