860
FXUS62 KMFL 061842
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
242 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

South Florida sits between Beryl to the west in the Gulf of Mexico
and a mid-level low over the Atlantic. A relatively local area of
high pressure over the eastern Gulf and the peninsula of Florida has
kept the wind flow regime fairly light again today. Sea breezes will
develop with inland showers and thunderstorms gradually moving west
toward the Gulf coast by the evening. To the northwest over the
Appalachians and the Tennessee Valley, a cold front has entered the
southeastern United States but it will stall on Sunday as Beryl
progresses northward and the Atlantic mid-level low moves westward.
This all will pinch the high and create a more southerly wind
pattern for Sunday. Again the sea breezes will develop but the
convection will tend to move northward with a focus around the State
Road 80 corridor and Lake Okeechobee by late afternoon/evening. The
slow-moving nature of the storms and the abundant tropical moisture
that will persist could lead to localized flooding in areas that
become saturated.

Temperatures continue to be stifling with widespread lower to mid
90s across South Florida for Sunday. With little in the way of
overnight relief as temperatures struggle to fall into the lower 80s
across the metro areas on both coasts, the threat of heat illness
continues to be worthy of mention. Heat Advisories could be
necessary for much of the area on Sunday as maximum heat index
values climb into the 107 to 113 range across the southern peninsula
of Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The weather pattern during the early to middle portion of the week
remains rather uncertain and will be influenced by several factors.
The first will be the evolution and direction of the mid level cut
off low in the western Atlantic. The latest ensembles and global
guidance remain in disagreement in the positioning of the mid level
low as it slowly moves towards the Southeast coast. Some of the
guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Carolina coastline
towards the middle of the week, while other guidance shows a stronger
mid level low pushing southwestward towards the Florida coast during
this time frame.

The second factor is the evolution of the potential for a Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) moving towards the region from the southeast. The latest
guidance shows the SAL moving into the region later on Monday and
heading into Tuesday. This would help to introduce some drier air
into the region which could help to limit shower and thunderstorm
activity during this time frame. If the SAL were to miss us and stay
to the south of the region, deeper layer moisture could work into the
region as the mid level low pushes closer to the area. While sea
breeze boundary development will still be the main focus for the
development of showers and thunderstorms, the latest forecast takes
a blend of the models and keeps the chances of convection close to a
typical summertime pattern through the middle of the week. With
winds gradually becoming east to southeasterly during this time
frame, the highest chances will remain over the interior and west
coast each afternoon. High temperatures during the early to middle
portion of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s and lower
90s. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Generally VFR though the period except for sub-VFR with showers and
thunderstorms later today into this evening. Bouts of IFR/LIFR are
possible at directly impacted terminals which may require short-
fused AMDs. Convection should diminish tonight with a light and
variable wind continuing. The southerly flow will return on Sunday
morning along with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will become
southerly heading into Sunday and the early portion of the week.
Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or
less through the early portion of the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be
locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  80  92 /  20  50  30  40
West Kendall     78  94  78  93 /  20  50  30  30
Opa-Locka        80  94  80  93 /  20  50  30  40
Homestead        80  93  80  92 /  20  40  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  80  91 /  20  40  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  80  92 /  20  40  30  50
Pembroke Pines   81  96  79  95 /  20  50  30  40
West Palm Beach  79  94  79  93 /  10  40  20  50
Boca Raton       80  94  79  93 /  10  40  30  50
Naples           80  93  80  92 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ069-070.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...RAG