691
FXUS62 KMFL 130551
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
151 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to dissipate
over South Florida through the evening hours as the heating of
the day is lost. The overnight hours should remain dry over South
Florida with light winds due to high pressure building into the
Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters. Therefore,
will keep isolated to scattered POPs in the forecast for the
evening hours over South Florida before going dry for rest
overnight hours.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An upper level low off the mid-Atlantic coast will be absorbed into
the larger scale upper level flow through Saturday. Perturbations
passing through the region will allow waves of convection with
distinct lulls in between. One convective wave is possible this
afternoon/early evening with another wave possible late evening into
the overnight hours. At the mid and lower levels, high pressure
extending over Florida from the Atlantic continues to reign. With
the unsettled pattern brought by the upper level low slowly
transitioning back to the more diurnal sea breeze pattern for
Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to be warm with lower to mid 90s with
overnight lows that struggle to drop below 80 unless rain-cooled air
enters the equation. Heat index values will rebound on Saturday with
the potential for Heat Advisories across portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

As we transition into the long-term period, a record-strength
Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift winds to a more
easterly flow on Sunday. Diurnally driven convection will begin
early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall
probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the
interior by the latter part of the day. The presence of a warm air
mass and 500mb temperatures remaining in the -5 to -6 degrees C
range through the weekend will likely inhibit the development of
robust and severe thunderstorms.

An extension of the Subtropical Ridge centered over the Western
Atlantic will maintain deep easterly flow across the region.
Embedded within this easterly flow is a fast-moving tropical wave
near the Windward Islands, which is forecast to reach the Straits
of Florida and the Florida Keys early Monday. This wave will bring
deep tropical moisture, with precipitable water values around 2.3
inches (90th percentile) and breezy east-southeast winds of 15-20
mph. The arrival of the tropical wave and associated moisture
will result in numerous showers and thunderstorms, supported by
sufficient forcing and large-scale ascent. It should be noted that
there is significant forecast uncertainty regarding the northern
extent of the moisture plume as it approaches our CWA. The ECMWF
model suggests a more southerly track, resulting in lower PWATs
over the area, while the GFS model indicates a more northerly
track with higher moisture content.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal throughout the
long-term period. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 80s
along the east coast and lower 90s across the interior and west
coast. Overnight lows will settle into the mid-upper 70s inland
and on the west coast, and upper 70s to low 80s on the east coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Light and variable winds continue at all terminals until 14Z, then
increasing to around 10 kt from the ESE. VCSH/VCTS also expected
after 14-15Z and continue for most of the TAF sites through 00Z
with MVFR/IFR periods possible. APF should again experience a
weswterly onshore flow with Gulf breezes during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Generally light to moderate south to southwesterly winds will
prevail before shifting back to a more easterly flow by Saturday.
High pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic, with seas and
wind speeds remaining well below highlight criteria. Thus, in
general, expect benign boating conditions to prevail through early
next week Only exception will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm
that forms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  81  92  81 /  60  40  60  30
West Kendall     92  79  93  79 /  60  30  60  30
Opa-Locka        93  81  93  80 /  60  40  50  30
Homestead        91  81  91  80 /  60  40  60  40
Fort Lauderdale  90  82  90  81 /  50  40  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  82  91  82 /  50  30  50  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  94  80 /  50  30  50  30
West Palm Beach  91  80  91  80 /  50  30  50  10
Boca Raton       91  81  91  80 /  50  30  50  20
Naples           93  79  94  78 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...17