Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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198 FXUS62 KMFL 040530 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 130 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Stout mid-level ridging (~594 dam) will continue to expand across the southeastern United States through the short term as surface highs build inland from the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Easterly- southeasterly winds will prevail during this period, with near-climo moisture values in place on Wednesday (PWAT values between 1.7-1.9 inches). This regime will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over interior and southwestern FL during the late afternoon hours as the sea breezes develop and meet inland. Drier mid-level air could filter in over the area on Thursday along Hurricane Beryl`s northern flank as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula. This dry air intrusion could help inhibit widespread convective development across the region, with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage (PoPs ~50-60%) over the interior and southwest FL during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures each day will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate East Coast to the low 90s across interior and southwest FL. The corresponding heat indices have climbed into the 105-110 degree F range across southern-most portions of the peninsula this afternoon; as a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Miami- Dade, Broward, mainland Monroe and Collier counties through 8pm Thursday. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along the immediate coastlines. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Ridging will hold over the area through Friday-Saturday, flattening out over the weekend as a mid-level trough develops over the Great Lakes region. This will support a light flow pattern with easterly to southeasterly winds prevailing through the weekend before shifting more southerly early next week. Chances for shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon will be driven by the sea breezes given that South Florida is under broad high pressure. Convection is expected to first initiate over the local waters and the East Coast metro areas late each morning, shifting towards the interior and West Coast areas in the afternoon and early evening. Models suggest a surge of moisture could approach the region over the weekend, thus enhancing the chances for heavy rainfall and higher coverage on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most areas each day. Heat index values may range between 105 and 110 during the late morning and afternoon hours. However, there is low confidence regarding persistence and thus continuous monitoring will be needed to determine the potential issuance of any heat-related products. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Generally VFR through the period. Light and variable winds become easterly later this morning. There`s a very slight chance of showers impacting East Coast sites in the early afternoon, but confidence does not extend beyond mention of VCSH. Higher confidence regarding impacts to KAPF later in the evening; short fuse TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR conditions could be needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters through the end of the week as ridging prevails. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop each afternoon, resulting in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the east coast beaches through Thursday as moderate easterly (onshore) flow prevails. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 93 79 / 30 10 40 20 West Kendall 92 78 93 77 / 30 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 93 80 94 79 / 20 10 40 20 Homestead 91 79 91 79 / 20 10 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 90 80 / 20 10 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 92 80 / 20 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 94 79 95 79 / 20 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 91 78 92 78 / 20 10 40 20 Boca Raton 92 78 93 79 / 20 10 40 20 Naples 93 80 92 80 / 40 30 50 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069>075-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV/Rizzuto LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...ATV