020
FXUS62 KMFL 171630
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A mid level ridge will remain in place across South Florida through
tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic will continue to bring east to southeast wind flow to the
region during this time frame. Some mid level dry air remains over
the region which will help to reduce coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening hours. With east
to southeasterly wind flow in place, the east coast sea breeze will
be the dominate one and the best convection chances will remain over
Southwest Florida through the evening hours. While the potential for
strong thunderstorm development remains limited today, one or two
strong storms cannot be completely ruled out mainly across Southwest
Florida where the sea breeze boundaries will collide and interact.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms over land will diminish as
this evening progresses, however, additional convection will be
possible over the local waters and immediate east coast overnight.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across the east
coast metro areas.

Heading into Thursday, while mid level ridging will remain in place,
it will start to slowly shift eastward as the day progresses in
response to an amplifying mid level trough pushing into the Midwest
as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a frontal
boundary will push through the Southeast and stall out well to the
north of the region as high pressure in the western Atlantic blocks
any further southward progression of this front. This will cause a
wind shift to more of a southeasterly direction on Thursday. The
typical summertime pattern will remain in place across the region as
convection development will continue to be sea breeze driven. As
moisture advection continues along the southeasterly wind flow,
coverage will be a bit higher compared to the past several days. The
highest chances will remain over the interior and west coast
sections in the afternoon and evening. With lack of any mid to upper
level support, strong thunderstorm development will remain limited,
however, one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out over Southwest
Florida containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High
temperatures on Thursday will generally remain in the lower 90s
across most areas. Heat index values will once again soar and range
from 105 to 110 across most of South Florida through the early
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

South Florida will continue to remain positioned along the western
periphery of the broad subtropical ridge for most of the extended
period. Light to moderate east to southeasterly low level flow will
continue to prevail through most of the extended period, with the mean
flow veering more southeasterly at times late this week. With this
ongoing flow pattern, rain chances will continue to be more favored
towards the western half of the CWA as the Atlantic sea breeze will
advance further inland each day and the Gulf breeze will not be
able to penetrate as far. Another factor in precipitation chances
over the weekend and into early next week will be another Saharan
dust plume (SAL) advecting into the region, which is likely to
create drier conditions particularly aloft. This would limit shower
and storm growth potential as well as how widespread
precipitation can become.

Towards the end of the weekend and into early next week, the SAL
will still have an impact on rain chances, but there will also be
the chance for a TUTT to advect through the region and provide
forcing and extra tropical moisture for increased showers and
thunderstorms. The combination of these factors leads to high
uncertainty for the end of the forecast period and thus changes
will be likely for early next week in future forecast updates. For
now, a middle ground approach has been taken with PoPS in the
chance to likely categories (i.e. 50-70%) early next week.

Temperatures are expected to stay in the low to mid 90s range for
highs each day and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat
Advisory conditions will continue to be possible each day given
the high moisture leading to high dew points and the daily hot
temperatures in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the east coast terminals
through the forecast period. ESE winds between 10 and 15 kts this
afternoon and this evening will gradually become light and variable
overnight. At KAPF, WSW winds around 10 kts this afternoon will
become light and variable this evening. Scattered showers and storms
will develop over the interior and west coast this afternoon which
could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions to KAPF through the
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly wind flow
will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of
the week as high pressure centered in the western Atlantic remains
in control of the weather pattern across the region. Seas across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less
through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher
in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place through tonight
across the Atlantic coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  81  93 /  10  40  20  70
West Kendall     79  93  78  93 /  10  50  20  70
Opa-Locka        81  93  81  93 /  10  40  20  70
Homestead        81  91  80  91 /  20  40  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  81  91 /  10  40  20  70
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  92 /  10  50  20  70
Pembroke Pines   81  92  81  94 /  10  40  20  70
West Palm Beach  79  91  80  93 /  10  50  10  70
Boca Raton       80  92  80  93 /  10  50  20  60
Naples           78  92  78  92 /  30  70  30  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CWC