415
FXUS64 KMEG 162015
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
315 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Expect rain chances to increase tonight as a cold front approaches
the Mid-South. A few storms may become strong to severe overnight,
but confidence for this remains low. Multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will linger through Thursday before cool, dry
air returns Friday. Afternoon highs through the weekend will be in
the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Hot and humid conditions continue to impact the Mid-South this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s.
Fortunately, a midlevel cloud deck continues to dampen maximum
heat index values across the region, with only a few sites hitting
110 degrees as of 230 PM. Due to the persistent nature of clouds
along with developing convection, the Excessive Heat Warning will
be trimmed back to only include the Mississippi Delta. Elsewhere,
a Heat Advisory will replace the warning.

A complex convective mode will begin tonight as a large upper
level trough, centered over the Great Lakes Region, pushes a cold
front into the Mid-South. CAMs continue to be in relatively good
agreement regarding development of showers and thunderstorms over
northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri this evening. There is
potential for a few storms to become severe as this activity
pushes into the Mid-South. However, less than ideal bulk shear
should limit storm strength and longevity. Therefore, the greatest
risk for severe storms will exist for areas north of I-40 with
damaging winds the primary concern.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely
by midday Wednesday, lasting through Thursday afternoon. Severe
weather potential at this time remains low due to unfavorable wind
profiles. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has opted against
including a risk over the area. Instead, the greater threat will
be heavy rainfall as precipitable water values increase to the
90th percentile Wednesday afternoon.

Much more tolerable conditions will be on tap this weekend as cool
and dry air filters into the Mid-South on Friday. Afternoon highs
in the 80s will persist into the foreseeable future with
additional rain chances likely by next Monday.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the period,
barring a few brief periods of possible TSRA across the northern
airspace overnight. JBR may also see some lowered ceilings
tomorrow mid morning as a front sinks south, but confidence was
too low to go lower than 3 kft AGL in the TAF. Convection should
move through in two waves: one overnight tonight with a decaying
MCS and another tomorrow evening with a cold front. CAMs are
fairly consistent with this first MCS falling apart as it moves
south, but it could still have enough structure to warrant a
PROB30 at JBR overnight for TSRA. Tomorrow will consist of more
vicinity TS/SH until the main trough moves through. Winds should
stay between 5-10 kts and gradually shift around to the northwest.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-
     007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ004-021-022-
     052>055-090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD