855
FXUS64 KMEG 181947
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
247 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Below normal temperatures and daily rain chances for north
Mississippi will be the story each day this forecast period due to
a stalled frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A low level frontal boundary has been draped across north
Mississippi for the last 48 hours and will continue to be the
main weather-maker for the majority of this forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across north MS in
periodic waves as shortwaves eject from the main low pressure
system over the ArkLaMiss region. None of these "rounds" of
convection look particularly robust; cloud cover and rain shields
will limit much of any workable instability but thunderstorms will
be possible each day south of I-40.

Though the frontal boundary may retrograde back north a bit over
the next few days, there looks to be very little movement through
the middle of next week. As a result, the northwestern half of the
CWA will get to enjoy a cooler, drier airmass while the
southeastern zones are stuck with incessant waves of convection
and higher humidity on the warm side of the boundary through early
next week. Fortunately, below normal temperatures sub-90 degrees
are expected through the end of the long range forecast as a deep
upper trough sets up over the central CONUS mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. A slow-
moving cold front, just south of MEM, will continue to push south
through late afternoon. There is a chance of TSRAs or SHRAs near
MEM with the best chance at TUP. IFR CIGs are possible at TUP near
sunrise as the front slowly moves south. Winds will be northerly
behind the front.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3