Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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961 FXUS64 KMEG 012019 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 319 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Fantastic early July weather is in store across the Mid-South for tonight as temperatures drop into the 60s. The heat will return Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 90s but humidity will remain relatively low for one more day. By Wednesday, the heat and humidity spell a return to oppressive conditions across the region. Occasional rain chances will affect the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 July is certainly starting off on the right foot as temperatures have warmed into into the 80s across the Mid-South. Coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, heat indices are a good 20-25 degrees lower than yesterday. The mid-level clouds moving into the region from the northwest have been consistently eroding as they bump into the subtropical ridge, allowing for mostly sunny conditions. Winds will become light overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 60s, with a few areas briefly dipping into the 50s around sunrise. The heat returns in earnest tomorrow as southerly winds resume. The relatively dry air will allow temperatures to warm efficiently. The NBM 10th percentile max temperature for Memphis is 94F so there isn`t much reason to think the high will not be in the low/mid 90s across much of the area. Heat indices look to remain in the 90s for most locations, but may breach 100F in some areas across north MS. Temperatures Wednesday may be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 90s, but the humidity will be a significant factor. Heat headlines will likely be needed across most or all of the CWA Wednesday and Thursday as heat indices exceed 105F and potentially exceed 110F. The main fly in the ointment for the midweek period is the potential for scattered, diurnal convection. This is less likely on Wednesday as the ridge maintains its grip on the region, but rain chances will increase for Thursday as a series of shortwave troughs damp the ridge and provide some large scale forcing for ascent as a cold front approaches the Mid-South. The greatest risk area for thunderstorms through Thursday will be over the OH Valley and the steering flow (still from the west-southwest) is not favorable to bring this activity in the CWA. This changes by Friday as a stronger wave traverses the Mid-MS Valley and drives a cold front through the CWA. Slightly cooler conditions are expected heading into the weekend but we`ll maintain at least token rain chances through the period as a broad, baggy trough sets up over the central CONUS. This pattern is poised to persist into early next week per most members of the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. However, there are a few outlying members that develop a ridge from the Four Corners into the Central Plains that could lead to warmer and dry conditions by Monday. Confidence right now is leaning toward the former solution of seasonal temperatures and diurnal rain chances. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl are a wild card at the moment given the uncertainty in the track. It`s currently most likely that most of the moisture with this system remains over Mexico into TX. MJ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. Northeast winds will veer to southeasterly by tomorrow morning at all sites. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ AVIATION...JPR