434
FXUS64 KMEG 112028
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
328 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Mostly dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected for
the next several days. Heat headlines may be necessary as early as
Sunday. More widespread rain chances begin mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Much of the short term forecast looks quite nondescript due to
weak surface ridging. Despite mostly dry air, light winds and
clear skies have allowed for patchy fog development over the last
few nights and will likely persist again overnight tonight. A
decaying MCS may also bring a slight chance (at least 15%) of
showers and thunderstorms to the northern tier of counties
tomorrow afternoon and/or evening, but confidence is fairly low in
this due to the presence of surface ridging.

We should see a gradual warming trend for the next several days
with temperatures climbing back into the mid 90s by tomorrow. The
surface high looks to meander about the Ohio River Valley through
the weekend, eventually settling over east Tennessee on Sunday.
This means southerly flow will return for the Mid-South, and with
it comes the potential for diurnally driven convection in the
afternoons. In addition, resultant humidity from the excess
moisture will mark the return of 105+ heat indices. We may need
heat headlines as early as Sunday, but more likely Monday and
Tuesday.

The pattern begins to shift with a cold front sinking south from
the Great Lakes Wednesday evening. This front will bring a more
widespread potential for showers and thunderstorms with PoPs
generally in the 30-40% range Wednesday and Thursday. One caveat
to note is that though a cooler and drier airmass is behind this
frontal boundary, these summertime E-W oriented fronts have a
tendency to stall out, frequently across north-central
Mississippi. WPC`s forecast surface analysis for late next week
suggests the front will clear the whole Mid-South in one shot, but
anecdotally this is not always the case. We`ll need to monitor
the potential for dewpoints pooling on the warm, moist side of the
front if it stalls, which may necessitate heat headlines for our
southern tier of counties late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Some areas of fog will be possible late overnight near the TN
River, east of MKL. Otherwise, light winds and VFR should prevail
at the TAF sites, as surface high pressure remains centered
overhead.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB