Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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340 ACUS11 KWNS 192141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192141 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-192245- Mesoscale Discussion 1683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192141Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...New Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears warranted for portions of the central/southern High Plains. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is evident within water-vapor imagery digging south-southeast across the central Plains. Scattered convection now reflects the leading edge of this feature, with thunderstorms gradually increasing across the central portions of ww555 from northwestern KS into eastern CO. This activity should propagate south along the primary corridor of instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg) toward the OK Panhandle later this evening. While LLJ is not forecast to be that strong, 25kt southerly jet should aid in the longevity of this activity as it spreads south across the High Plains. Damaging winds are the main risk, though some hail is possible. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 38220286 38379925 37419877 36340001 36460223 38220286