229
ACUS11 KWNS 051928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051928
TXZ000-NMZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051928Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase this afternoon, a few
of which may produce severe hail/wind gusts, though watch issuance
is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a decrease in cloud cover
throughout the late morning/early afternoon across most of eastern
New Mexico, while strong heating has been occurring along/near the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Surface observations show easterly
upslope flow into region, with dew point temperatures in the upper
50s and lower 60s. This combination is yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg, with isolated storms beginning to develop in proximity to the
Sangre de Cristo range.

Storm coverage should continue to increase, particularly in
northeast New Mexico, as continued heating/destabilization occurs,
with multicells emerging as the predominant mode. Deep-layer shear
is notably weak across the state, approaching 30-35 kt with northern
extent. Therefore, a few storms may organize into supercell
structures, at least briefly, with the potential for severe
hail/wind gusts. With time, storm coverage should expand southward,
though coverage of the severe threat is anticipated to remain low.
Given these expectations, watch issuance is unlikely for the region
at this time.

..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35240553 36100539 36780516 36950467 36990390 36680333
            36160311 35090298 34300303 33660312 33400333 33330376
            33340436 33660492 34250527 35240553