230
FXUS64 KMAF 281825
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
125 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- Isolated to scattered storms possible each day. More widespread
  activity expected on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, rain chances
  focused across southeast New Mexico southward into Davis
  Mountains.

- Gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning, as well as localized
  flooding are main risks with any storms, particularly over the
  Davis Mountains and adjacent plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

As in previous days, showers and thunderstorms are developing
in/around the Davis Mountains. Ultimately, outside of the higher
terrain, where thunderstorms develop today yet again depends largely
on where outflow boundaries develop and move. So, while the highest
rain/thunderstorm chances will be in the Davis Mountains (50-60%),
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should also be
expected for locations along and west of the Pecos River (20-40%
chance) and into the Permian Basin of West Texas (10-30% chance).
Though the Flood Watch has been cancelled, some flash flooding
concerns remain, particularly for locations in/near the Davis
Mountains (which have received ample rainfall the past few days and
were still dealing with flooded roadways as of this morning). In any
case, by tonight rain and thunderstorm activity wanes, and
temperatures bottom out a couple of degrees above normal (low-to-mid
70s, with typical cool spots in the upper 60s).

Very little changes tomorrow compared to today. Rain and storm
chances once again increase tomorrow afternoon. The best chances (50-
60%) will be in the Davis Mountains, with additional isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development expected later in the day for
roughly the same locations as today. Meanwhile, weak pulses in the
flow aloft will provide added forcing for shower and thunderstorm
development over the northern Permian Basin later in the
afternoon/evening (10-20% chance). Highs top out in the mid-to-upper
90s for most, and lows will be nearly identical to tonight`s.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Weak ridging holds to the north and west to begin the coming week
and gradually shifts across the southern half of the US through the
rest of the week. However, undercutting that ridge will be short
wave troughs that will hold over southern New Mexico and over West
Texas. This will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s for
much of the region. This pattern will keep up the quasi-monsoonal
conditions that the western half of the CWA has seen over the last
several days. The best rain chances will continue to be west of
the Pecos River Valley with a gradient of lower chances for the
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. The Davis Mountains and
adjacent plains look to benefit the most from this pattern where
ensemble guidance shows another half inch to an inch of rain in
the area over the next few days. Greater amounts may be possible.
While most storms will not be severe, flash flooding will be a
problem for areas that see repeated rain events each day. Forecast
lows remain about the same each day for the extended with most
locations in the low 70s and the higher terrain dipping into the
60s.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Once again, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon (a couple
already have in the Davis Mountains). For now, went with PROB30s
at every site except MAF, where confidence was too low to include
mention in the TAF (though a stray storm still could develop near
the terminal). Otherwise, light southerly winds continue at every
site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  30
Carlsbad                 70  94  70  89 /  30  20  20  50
Dryden                   75  98  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            73  95  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           66  86  66  82 /  30  30  20  40
Hobbs                    71  92  70  89 /  30  20  20  50
Marfa                    64  85  64  83 /  40  70  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                   74  95  73  93 /  20  10  10  30
Wink                     73  95  72  91 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for Chinati
     Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...13