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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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556 FXUS64 KMAF 150909 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 409 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge persisting coast to coast and beyond across the southern CONUS, bifurcated by a shortwave moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This shortwave proved bountiful for the area yesterday, developing convection as far east as Howard County. Radra estimates as much as 2.5" of rain fell from the strongest cells, although this was likely hail- contaminated. Even so, this may have been the last good chance of rain, as we head into a warm/dry spell. Today, the remnants of the trough continue moving east, nudged by the upper ridge developing in from the west. Despite this, thicknesses increase only slightly, adding only a degree or two to yesterday`s highs. A few areas along the Rio Grande and in the upper Colorado River Valley will approach heat advisory criteria, but we`d like to save these products for warmer conditions anticipated later in the week. Although the trough is exiting the area, plenty of residual boundaries are knocking about from yesterday`s activity for convective redevelopment, as well as a theta-e ridge in the boundary layer running SW-NE through the area. As mentioned above, yesterday was our last best chance for decent rain coverage for a bit, and today chances look a little less optimistic. This activity is forecast to diminish rather quickly this evening w/loss of daytime heating. A 30+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop, keeping mixing in play and combining w/debris cloud to keep overnight lows unseasonably warm...~ 7-9 F above normal. Friday, the upper ridge continues building in from the west, centering over western New Mexico by 00Z Saturday. However, thicknesses/temperatures don`t warm very much over what`s expected this afternoon. One last diurnally-driven cell or two may develop invof the Davis Mountains, but this looks to be the last chance for rain for a spell... && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Bottom line up front: The long term remain warm and bone dry, dominated by an upper ridge that starts out centered over northeast New Mexico Saturday. It then oscillates about the state through the extended, resulting inunseasonably warm conditions throughout. Heat products will be warranted as soon as Saturday afternoon, and needed for most, if not all, of the long term. The ridge will suppress any chances of convection, and drying soils could result in a positive feedback on highs...something the models don`t seem to account for. To make matters worse, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will retard radiational cooling each night, yielding unseasonably warm overnight lows. Since heat effects are cumulative, this won`t help things any. For this forecast at least, the peak of the heat wave looks to be Wednesday, when highs top out ~ 11-13 F above normal. Long-range models then weaken the ridge a little, decreasing thicknesses/temperatures by a degree or two. However, until a trough comes along to dislodge this feature, warm temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevaol next 24 hours in light return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases starting ~ 5-7 kft AGL. Convection is possible all terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 77 102 77 / 10 10 10 0 Carlsbad 101 74 101 74 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 101 74 101 74 / 20 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 71 94 71 / 20 10 10 0 Hobbs 99 72 99 72 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 93 66 94 66 / 60 20 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 100 76 99 76 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 100 77 99 76 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 102 76 102 77 / 20 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44