556
FXUS64 KMAF 150909
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge persisting coast to
coast and beyond across the southern CONUS, bifurcated by a
shortwave moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This
shortwave proved bountiful for the area yesterday, developing
convection as far east as Howard County. Radra estimates as much
as 2.5" of rain fell from the strongest cells, although this was
likely hail- contaminated. Even so, this may have been the last
good chance of rain, as we head into a warm/dry spell.

Today, the remnants of the trough continue moving east, nudged by
the upper ridge developing in from the west.  Despite this,
thicknesses increase only slightly, adding only a degree or two to
yesterday`s highs.  A few areas along the Rio Grande and in the
upper Colorado River Valley will approach heat advisory criteria,
but we`d like to save these products for warmer conditions
anticipated later in the week.  Although the trough is exiting the
area, plenty of residual boundaries are knocking about from
yesterday`s activity for convective redevelopment, as well as a
theta-e ridge in the boundary layer running SW-NE through the area.
As mentioned above, yesterday was our last best chance for decent
rain coverage for a bit, and today chances look a little less
optimistic.

This activity is forecast to diminish rather quickly this evening
w/loss of daytime heating.  A 30+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop,
keeping mixing in play and combining w/debris cloud to keep
overnight lows unseasonably warm...~ 7-9 F above normal.

Friday, the upper ridge continues building in from the west,
centering over western New Mexico by 00Z Saturday. However,
thicknesses/temperatures don`t warm very much over what`s expected
this afternoon.  One last diurnally-driven cell or two may develop
invof the Davis Mountains, but this looks to be the last chance for
rain for a spell...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Bottom line up front:  The long term remain warm and bone dry,
dominated by an upper ridge that starts out centered over northeast
New Mexico Saturday.  It then oscillates about the state through the
extended, resulting inunseasonably warm conditions throughout.  Heat
products will be warranted as soon as Saturday afternoon, and needed
for most, if not all, of the long term.  The ridge will suppress any
chances of convection, and drying soils could result in a positive
feedback on highs...something the models don`t seem to account for.
To make matters worse, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will retard
radiational cooling each night, yielding unseasonably warm overnight
lows.  Since heat effects are cumulative, this won`t help things
any.  For this forecast at least, the peak of the heat wave looks to
be Wednesday, when highs top out ~ 11-13 F above normal.  Long-range
models then weaken the ridge a little, decreasing
thicknesses/temperatures by a degree or two.  However, until a
trough comes along to dislodge this feature, warm temperatures will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevaol next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning,
w/bases starting ~ 5-7 kft AGL. Convection is possible all
terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  77 102  77 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                101  74 101  74 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                  101  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  74 101  74 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           92  71  94  71 /  20  10  10   0
Hobbs                    99  72  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    93  66  94  66 /  60  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport    100  76  99  76 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                  100  77  99  76 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                    102  76 102  77 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44