![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
800 FXUS64 KMAF 160725 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 225 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A quiet pattern with ridging over the Four Corners region continues. Subsidence associated with the ridge will keep cloud cover low, allowing temperatures to warm into the 90s today, with triple digits along the Pecos River over the Reeves County plains and Stockton plateau, eastern Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande. Unlike previous days, a tongue of dry air over West Texas that is visible in water vapor satellite imagery will reduce rain chances even over western higher terrain. As a result of lower cloud cover and rain chances and a stronger low level thermal ridge today, highs will be a few degrees above average for mid July. We don`t quite reach Heat Advisory criteria but come close in the Low Rolling Plains today. Tonight under light winds southeast winds, lows will fall into the 70s or above, 60s in northern Lea County, Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Ridging over the Four Corners doesn`t move much tomorrow, so we are expecting similar conditions to today, with 90s and triple digits along the Pecos River and Rio Grande and over the eastern Permian Basin. Like today, heat risk may be marginal enough and limited in extent over the Western Low Rolling Plains tomorrow to preclude issuance of any Heat Advisories. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 After a few hot days some big changes are on the way, especially if you like below normal temperatures and rain in July! Upper ridging centered to our west will shift slightly allowing for northerly flow to develop aloft. This flow regime will allow a cold front to move into the region late Wednesday or early Thursday. This front will likely be convectively influenced from storms over the TX PH Wednesday afternoon. While most models indicate a slower front with better PoPs on Thursday, recent experience has shown convection to our north will likely send outflow and storms south into our region as early as Wednesday night/Thursday morning. If this occurs, the front could end up further south Thursday afternoon leaving much of the Permian Basin free of rain. We will know more as we get into the range of hi-resolution models. Temperatures will fall below normal with highs generally in the upper 80s and low 90s. Return flow is expected Friday allowing temperatures to return to normal. The best rain chances will shift into the higher terrain amid upslope, moist flow. The upper ridge shifts further west into the Great Basin this weekend allowing a shortwave to dive south across the Plains. This will allow another rare July cold front to move into the region bringing our next best chance for widespread rain. This pattern is likely to last into next week helping to keep rain chances in the forecast and temperatures generally below normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR VIS and CIGs expected throughout TAF period. Winds could become gusty at terminals over SE NM plains beginning 18Z Tuesday and for most of the Permian Basin into the Stockton Plateau beginning 02Z Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 101 73 100 73 / 0 0 20 30 Dryden 99 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 73 100 73 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 92 70 91 68 / 10 0 20 20 Hobbs 98 71 97 70 / 0 0 10 30 Marfa 91 63 92 64 / 30 20 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 99 74 98 74 / 0 0 10 20 Odessa 99 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 102 76 101 76 / 0 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...94