070
FXUS64 KMAF 172010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

We`re continuing to monitor a convectively modified cold front
that has surged southward into northern Lea through the
northeastern Permian Basin this afternoon. We are already seeing
thunderstorm development along this boundary, with scattered
thunderstorms possible for the central and northern/eastern
Permian Basin through the remainder of the afternoon in addition
to the typical diurnally driven storms found across the Davis
Mountains. The ongoing and continued storm activity will continue
progressing the cold front southwestward towards the Pecos Valley
this afternoon and evening, with a stray shower or two possible as
the boundary pushes along. While most of today`s precipitation is
driven by mesoscale features, it is still aided by slightly
decreased synoptic subsidence as the upper ridge that has been in
control the last few days has nudged westward closer to the AZ/NM
border. This has also allowed high temperatures to nudge down a
degree or two compared to yesterday. For those in the
northern/eastern Permian Basin already behind the front, the
temperatures are already falling and the high temperatures have
only reached the low to mid 90s.

Moving into early tomorrow, high resolution model guidance is
consistent that a separate outflow boundary will come in behind our
cold/stalled front and help initiate more showers and thunderstorms
in the south central Permian Basin around 12-14z Thursday morning.
Between the outflow from these storms, the lingering stalled front
from today, a further westward displaced ridge, and diurnal heating,
more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon generally along/west of the Pecos River and western high
terrain. Behind the front and with the added effect of clouds and
precipitation, high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than
today, only topping out in the low 90s for most and the upper 80s
for the higher elevations.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Not much has changed over the past 24 hours.  Ensemble guidance and
cluster analyses of same show the same pattern setup, with a large
highly amped up ridge extending from the Great Basin north to just
about the Arctic, and long wave troughs/lows off the Canadian
Pacific coast and from Hudson Bay/QB southwestward to the southern
High Plains. This setup will favor cooler than normal (by as much as
5-10 degrees) temperatures Sunday through next Wednesday along with
a good (> 50% chance) of rain and thunderstorms just about anywhere.
As always, the devil is in the details. Precipitable water values
will climb to the 75th to 90th percentile range by Sunday, and
with another boundary progged to enter west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico sometime Sunday night/Monday morning, the stage will
be set for the potential for highly-localized heavy rainfall, with
the best chances (> 70%) over the mountains and adjacent plains.
However, urban areas may be impacted as well, affecting the Monday
morning commute for some.

Until then, expect the best chances for rain Saturday and Sunday
over the mountains and adjacent terrain. Monday could be a wet day
for many, but some may miss out on some badly-needed precipitation.
Would like to see a dent made in the drought conditions across
southeastern New Mexico, but the best chances for rain will be from
the Guadalupes north across the southern Sacramento Mountains. While
overall QPF will be in the 0.50" to 1.25" range, some areas might
see a couple of inches (or more) from localized downpours while
others might only pick up a few tenths. Nevertheless, we`ll take
nature`s air conditioning in the latter half of July! -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds remain steady out of the
east-southeast through the afternoon. An old outflow boundary will
serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development across the
northern/eastern Permian Basin this afternoon. While direct
impacts to terminals isn`t generally expected, a stray storm or
two may draw near HOB. Otherwise, this outflow will continue to
surge southwestward this evening, bringing a east-northeasterly
wind shift. Some gusty winds may briefly accompany this boundary
passage, but MAF will likely see the strongest winds out of all
the terminals given the closer proximity to the expected storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  94  71  97 /  20  30  10  20
Carlsbad                 73  92  71  95 /  20  50  20  30
Dryden                   75  96  73  98 /   0  30  10  10
Fort Stockton            73  93  73  96 /  10  50  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           67  84  67  86 /  10  50  30  40
Hobbs                    70  89  69  93 /  30  40  20  20
Marfa                    64  88  64  88 /  10  60  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  91  71  95 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                   74  91  73  95 /  20  40  10  20
Wink                     76  93  74  97 /  10  50  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...16