393
FXUS64 KMAF 190800
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
300 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered over Arizona this morning,
buttressed by a broad trough along or east of the MS Valley, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft.
KMAF VWP shows a negligible LLJ this morning, in alignment w/hi-res
models.  This, despite a few mid/high clouds, will allow radiational
cooling to kick in, and overnight lows will cool too just 2-4 F
above normal.

However, for those averse to warmer temperatures, the next couple of
days do not bode well.  Although the upper ridge is forecast to
drift northwest, centering over the junction of AZ/CA/NV by Saturday
afternoon, thicknesses are nevertheless set to increase.  Highs this
afternoon will increase ~ 5-7 F over yesterday`s, ending up w/in a
degree or so of normal most locations.  Southeasterly upslope flow
will favor diurnally-driven junky storms over the higher terrain,
assisted by impulses moving south through flow aloft.

This activity will slowly diminish tonight as a 25+kt LLJ develops.
While nothing to write home about as far as LLJ`s go, this will
maintain enough mixing to keep overnight minimums a degree or two
above tonight`s.

Saturday, as mentioned above, will be warmer than today, but only by
a degree or two.  This should be the warmest day this forecast, as
large-scale troughing will force its way into Texas beginning Sunday
to ruin things.  The upshot of this is models developing fairly good
chances of convection to the west and north of the area, giving the
northeast CWA a shot at a little relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A fairly typical summer pattern continues into the latter half of
the weekend. An upper level ridge remains across the Four
Corners/Great Basin allowing for northwest flow aloft across our
area. Shortwave troughs will ride the ridge southward into the
Southern Plains bringing weak fronts along with rain chances from
Sunday through Tuesday. Guidance suggests PWATs between 1.5-1.75"
moving into areas east of the Pecos River with PWATs between an inch
to 1.5" to the west. Some spots may see up to an inch of rain, but
amounts look to stay well below that between Sunday and Tuesday.
With the passage of each front, afternoon highs trend into the 80s
for most with 90s reserved for the normal hot spots. Lows settle
into the 60s due in part to rain and clouds. As rain chances
diminish through the week, temperatures tick back up into the low
90s. Overall, a cooler and wetter stretch is looking more likely.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning,
w/bases 5-7 kft AGL. Convection will be possible, mainly
KCNM/KPEQ, but chances are too low to warrant a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  74  98  72 /   0   0  30  30
Carlsbad                 94  72  95  71 /  20  20  50  50
Dryden                   97  74  99  74 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            96  73  98  73 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           86  69  86  66 /  20  20  60  60
Hobbs                    94  70  93  68 /  10  10  40  50
Marfa                    89  64  91  65 /  30  10  40  20
Midland Intl Airport     94  73  96  73 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                   94  74  96  73 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                     97  74  98  74 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44