315
FXUS64 KMAF 160506
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper level
ridging dominating over the Four Corners. In addition to the
subsidence supplied by the ridge, water vapor satellite imagery
depicts a tongue of dry air is extending on the southern periphery
of the ridge into West Texas. These two factors are largely
suppressing thunderstorm development across the area, with only a
few scattered storms seen across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
this afternoon. Slightly less cloud cover compared to the last few
days and a low level thermal ridge that is a touch stronger today
allows many spots to see high temperatures a few degrees warmer than
yesterday.

The ridge does not move much heading into tomorrow, with a nearly
carbon-copy day of weather expected. However, the low level thermal
ridge builds to be a touch stronger still, leading to another degree
or so warmer for tomorrow`s high temperatures. Many spots in the
Permian basin through the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys should
hit or exceed the century mark. The western Low Rolling Plains may
near Heat Advisory conditions, but it is small enough in area and
marginally near criteria to preclude any product issuance. Will let
the next forecast update make the final call here.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A pattern shift is in the offing as the Four Corners high grows
latitudinally and pokes a ridge almost to the Arctic. Long wave
troughs are evident in the ensemble data off the Pacific Northwest
coast and extending from QB southeastward across the mid western
Atlantic. Short wave troughs embedded in the highly-amplified polar
jet stream along with deep-layer northerly flow aloft overhead
should be sufficient to push weak cold fronts (potentially augmented
by convective outflows) across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico Thursday and again next Monday. The ensemble cluster guidance
is in good agreement that there`s a decent (>= 30% chance) of seeing
diurnally-driven thunderstorms each day just about anywhere, with
the greatest chances for precipitation over the mountains.  QPF
could be interesting, generally greatest (around an inch) over the
mountains and lesser amounts everywhere else, but if you`re
fortunate to be under a downpour during this period, you could pick
up a quick inch in under an hour as PWATs increase to above one inch
through the weekend. Temperatures are trending downward given the
increase in moisture, with highs falling to at or just a bit below
normal for mid July. Lows, however, will remain elevated, generally
in the 60s to mid 70s, again owing to moisture and a modest low
level jet each evening. Given that this is the latter half of July,
we`ll take a break from widespread triple-digit heat. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs expected throughout TAF period. Winds could
become gusty at terminals over SE NM plains beginning 18Z Tuesday
and for most of the Permian Basin into the Stockton Plateau
beginning 02Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              103  75 100  73 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                102  74 100  73 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                  100  73  99  74 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton           101  73 100  73 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           93  70  90  68 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                   100  72  97  70 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    92  64  93  64 /  30  10  30  10
Midland Intl Airport    100  74  98  74 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                  100  74  98  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    103  76 101  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...94