Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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814 FXUS64 KLZK 082002 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The initial wave of convection, from now Tropical Storm Beryl, conts to lift northward acrs the FA this aftn, with another area of rainfall concentrated over southwest AR. As expected, we are seeing quite the range of temps over the FA. Mid aftn readings ranged fm the 70s in the rain-cooled locations, to the 80s elsewhere. No significant changes were made to the going fcst. The projected track of Beryl`s remnants have sped up a bit per the latest NHC fcst, but the overall track thru AR rmns unchanged, generally along the I-30/US Highway 67/167 corridor. Heavy rainfall/flash flooding potential, along with the potential for a few tornadoes, are the main threats tonight into Tue. Showers and a scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage tngt as the center of Beryl moves into southwest AR later tngt. Between now and then, this timeframe is the most concerning for tornado formation over southwest AR as the lower lvl wind fields wl rmn favorable for tornadic development. The system is expected to be centered around the MO Bootheel by early Tue evening, with rain chances quickly diminishing fm the south and west. Drier conds wl return for Wed, with highs returning to near normal lvls. Sfc dewpoints wl be in the 60s, so aftn heat indices wl stay below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The prevailing upper level trof and the hurricane remnants have been a nice break in the typical hot and excessively humid weather normally expected in the month of July. For better or worse, weather conditions during the extended term will be reverting back to more typical July conditions. The term will begin with surface high pressure building into the area in the wake of a cool front. Above the surface, an upper level trof of low pressure will be gradually starting to propagate eastward. Over time the surface high will slide to the east, allowing a return flow of moist Gulf air across the region, while an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the area from the west. The overall trend for the forecast period will be warming temperatures and increasing moisture levels, with little in the way of precipitation. I suspect that by Monday of next week, some areas will see heat index values climb at or above the 105 degree level...requiring the issuance of head advisory products. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Flight conds wl deteriorate acrs the FA thru the period and the remnants of Beryl apch AR fm the southwest. Seeing one band of convection lifting north acrs northern and western AR, affecting mainly KHRO and KBPK thru mid aftn. Areal coverage of showers/ storms wl ramp up heading into tngt thru much of Tue mrng. Gusty winds wl also occur as the center of Beryl tracks generally along the I-30/Highway 67/167 corridor. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 75 64 88 / 90 90 20 10 Camden AR 69 82 65 91 / 90 70 10 10 Harrison AR 65 75 62 86 / 90 90 10 0 Hot Springs AR 68 81 66 90 / 100 90 10 10 Little Rock AR 72 79 68 89 / 100 90 10 10 Monticello AR 73 82 67 90 / 80 60 10 10 Mount Ida AR 65 81 64 89 / 100 80 10 10 Mountain Home AR 66 74 62 86 / 90 90 10 0 Newport AR 71 79 65 87 / 90 90 30 10 Pine Bluff AR 72 80 67 88 / 90 80 10 10 Russellville AR 68 80 65 89 / 90 90 10 10 Searcy AR 70 78 65 88 / 90 90 20 10 Stuttgart AR 73 80 67 86 / 90 80 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>033-039-042>044-052>054-103- 112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237- 238-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...44