834
FXUS64 KLZK 112321
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Current NW flow aloft has brought a weak disturbance to the state
with light to moderate showers currently falling across western
and central locations. Showers will continue to dissipate through
the afternoon hours. An additional system is expected to push
across the state tonight bringing a better chance of rain across
northern into central location through Monday morning. Widespread
rain is not expected at this time and northern locations will
likely get the most rainfall with this second system.

Temperatures are quite comfortable across the state this afternoon
thanks to increase cloud cover. The warmest temperatures will be
across the southeast where cloud cover is lacking. High
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s across northern
and central locations with the low 90s possible across the south.
As we head into Monday and Tuesday, forecast high temperatures
will begin to warm has surface high pressure begins to build back
over the state. Highs are forecast to get into the mid 80s to
near 100 degrees by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The long term forecast has not changed, with heat returning to the
region. A warm front will be in the process of crossing Arkansas
from the south to begin the period, and then a ridge of high
pressure will take over from there.

For much of the period, the ridge will be centered from
southern/western sections of the state into the central and southern
Plains. Under the ridge, largely above average temperatures are in
the forecast, especially across the central/southern counties. This
is also where heat headlines will likely be necessary at times as
triple digit afternoon heat indices become common.

Farther north/east toward the periphery of the ridge, isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, and it will not be quite
so hot. Rainfall does not appear appreciable overall, with amounts
generally below average.

Toward the end of the period, there will be some troughing over the
Ohio Valley. A cold front will try to push into the region from the
north, with some minor relief possible north/east of Little Rock.
Otherwise, the heat will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Upper level disturbance over eastern Arkansas continues to weaken
as it moves to the east. A second disturbance will overspread the
region tonight with convection possible across the northern TAF
sites around sunrise. Widespread IFR conditions will prevail at
KHRO and KBPK this evening before slowly improving to MVFR. VFR
conditions are expected at the remainder of the terminals through
the period, Winds will remain light in speed and largely variable
in direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  85  69  91 /  20  40  10  40
Camden AR         69  95  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
Harrison AR       65  85  68  89 /  50  70  20  50
Hot Springs AR    69  93  74  99 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  71  92  75  96 /   0  10   0  20
Monticello AR     71  95  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      67  92  71  98 /  10  20   0  20
Mountain Home AR  66  82  68  88 /  50  80  30  50
Newport AR        67  85  71  91 /  10  20  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     69  93  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
Russellville AR   68  89  71  96 /  10  30  10  20
Searcy AR         66  88  71  93 /  10  20  10  30
Stuttgart AR      69  90  74  94 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...56