147
FXUS64 KLZK 250522
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

-Hot and humid conditions will persist through the weekend.

-Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
 each day, with limited overall coverage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

H500 ridge remains centered over the Central Appalachians this
afternoon with sfc ridging in a similar position. This is
providing above normal temperatures as well as increased humidity
across much of the eastern and southern US. Other than some
isolated afternoon showers and storms in place across the area,
limited relief from the heat is expected.

By mid-week, the H500 ridge is expected to retrograde WSW,
becoming centered over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through
Thursday. This will further allow the heat to build and conditions
to remain unpleasant across much of the state and surrounding
areas.

There could be some disruption to the mid-level ridge by late week
as a slow moving H500 trough works its way northwestward from the
northeast coast of Florida. This feature will struggle to make
much westward progress toward the area and will likely remain
focused across the SE US. This would likely lead to the primary
H500 ridge being centered over Arkansas this weekend into early
next week. If this occurs it would lead to an even longer stretch
of above normal temperatures and humid air. An increase in precip
may be noted near the trough, but that would likely occur to the
southeast of the state.

There remains some indication in medium to long range model
guidance that the mid-level ridge could be forced SW, away from
the state by the early to middle part of next week. This would
occur in response to a stronger H500 low/trough moving from the
Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes. At the sfc, a
corresponding cold front may move through the area and could
provide slightly cooler temperatures next week. Will continue to
monitor to see if this trend persists.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail overnight into Wednesday morning
across the state. The main aviation impact later in the TAF period
will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
over portions of central, eastern, and northern Arkansas during
the mid to late afternoon hours on Wednesday. Hi-res CAMs
early this morning continue to show isolated to scattered storms
in aforementioned areas around the mid to late afternoon hours of
Wednesday. The main impacts will be brief MVFR to IFR conditions
and strong gusty outflow winds with showers and storms. Confidence
on placement is still too low to put in TAF outside of VCSH at
central and northern Arkansas terminals at this time. Otherwise,
light S/SE winds and VFR conditions will persist through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  76  95  75 /  20   0  10   0
Camden AR         96  74  96  73 /  20   0  10   0
Harrison AR       90  71  91  72 /  20   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    95  73  95  73 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  95  76  96  76 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     96  76  96  75 /  20   0  10   0
Mount Ida AR      93  73  94  72 /  20   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  91  73  92  72 /  20   0  10   0
Newport AR        95  76  96  77 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     95  75  95  75 /  20   0  10   0
Russellville AR   94  74  95  73 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         95  75  96  74 /  20   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      94  77  95  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069-123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...76