Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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292 FXUS64 KLZK 112355 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 655 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The main story regarding the short-term forecast period of ending the work-week and delving into the weekend will be the increasing temperatures and overall dry conditions across the CWA and state. In the upper lvls, the state remains positioned between a stout area of ridging over the Four Corners region of the CONUS and a trof axis over the state that slowly moves eastward over the period away from the the CWA and state. At the sfc, a stout area of high pressure will meander across the state and eventually into the Mid-South region of the CONUS into Saturday. This area of sfc high pressure will play an important role in keeping the CWA and state overwhelmingly dry over the short-term forecast period. The state will be flanked by two separate boundaries: one to the north across southern Missouri and a second across northern Louisiana and the I-20 corridor. The boundaries will remain nearly stationary, but may get close enough to the CWA to provide some low chances at POPs across northern and southern Arkansas; however, this looks to be an outside possibility, and if it does come to fruition, QPF amounts would be lucky to amount to enough to knock the dust down. Temperatures with respect to both morning low and afternoon high temperatures will both be slightly above normal for this time of the year compared to climatological normals. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Pretty much a lather, rinse and repeat forecast once again as models are not showing much deviation in their overall output. Guidance is starting to show a frontal system very late in the period and if it pans out, would bring at least some precipitation chances to the CWA. Until then, it will largely be a persistence forecast. Period initiates with broad upper trough over the Ohio Valley and pulling away with a sprawling upper ridge which has been baking the western CONUS, centered over the central Rockies. Upper ridge does retrograde slightly over the weekend before being knocked down and stretched out somewhat by a mid level cyclone moving through central Canada. Ridge does expand to cover the CWA but has considerably less amplitude than previous upper highs. This will allow for at least some diurnally driven convection but overall it looks to be spotty in nature. The best chances appear to be Sunday afternoon as a weak wave makes its approach. An actual cold front will be dropping down from the north very late in the period with increased rain chances late Wednesday and into Wednesday night with the GFS a little faster than the ECMWF. As far as temperatures are concerned, highs are expected to get into the upper 80s (highest elevations) to the upper 90s with heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria at times. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Expect VFR condns to persist thru the PD, w/ winds bcmg light and variable overnight Thurs night. Srly winds should resume on Fri. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 94 71 96 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 70 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 20 Harrison AR 69 92 70 94 / 10 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 72 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 73 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 69 92 70 94 / 10 20 0 0 Newport AR 70 93 72 95 / 0 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 71 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 72 94 72 96 / 0 10 0 0 Searcy AR 70 94 71 95 / 0 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 72 92 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...72