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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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700 FXUS64 KLZK 121006 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 506 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Overall pattern remains the same through the short term portion of the forecast. H500 ridge remains in place across the SW US with a trough extending south toward the state from the Great Lakes, sfc ridging will hold firm locally. Not quite a true NW flow setup as the ridge`s influence extends east toward the mid-south. This setup will mainly provide dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures to the state through Saturday. Heat headlines don`t appear likely for most of the state, but a few locations could see heat indices around 105 on Saturday. Have included some POPs across northern AR today, given the early morning TS development along the KS/MO border aided by the increased LLJ across OK and KS. Anticipate that much of this activity diminishes as it drifts E/SE with time but given daytime heating and perhaps some remnant boundary influence, there could be some additional development throughout the day. A similar situation is possible tonight into Saturday morning, but confidence isn`t high enough to include much in the way of POPs attm. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 High pressure is expected to control the weather pattern through the middle of next week. Diurnally driven convection cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon, although PoPs are kept on the lower end with chances around 20 to 30 percent. The best chance for PoPs will be across southern locations. A pattern change will occur as an upper level trough slides over the area Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring a cold front across the state by late Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of the front. Through much of the period, hot and humid conditions are expected. As mentioned above, hot conditions are will continue across the state through the long term period...High temperatures are expected to get into the upper 80s (highest elevations) to upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the 70s. Temperatures will begin to drop as the cold front pushes through the state Thursday. Heat advisories and even excessive heat warnings are likely going to be needed through the much of period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Generally VFR conditions with srly winds of less than 10 kts expected through the period. Nearby TS activity across NW AR and SW MO could provide a few showers/storms to KHRO/KBPK but coverage should remain limited. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 92 71 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 95 72 96 74 / 0 0 10 0 Harrison AR 90 71 92 70 / 30 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 95 73 96 74 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 94 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 10 0 Mount Ida AR 93 71 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 90 71 93 71 / 20 0 10 0 Newport AR 92 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 73 95 75 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 94 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 92 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 92 73 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...67