918
FXUS64 KLZK 170557
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The overall synoptic pattern had Arkansas was on the eastern edge of
an upper ridge this morning. The ridge is retrograding and
amplifying over the western US, which will result in a trof taking
its place over the midsection of the country. Ultimately Arkansas
will end up under a NW-W flow aloft.

A cold front will be moving out of the Plains and making its way
into Arkansas tomorrow. The front will take its time and may not
make it out of the forecast area until late tomorrow night into the
early hours of Thursday morning.

Thunderstorm chances will increase across the state tomorrow,
reaching the highest POPs tomorrow night.

The only lingering question is what the rain chances will look like
overnight into early tomorrow morning. NAM is rather aggressive
at developing showers and thunderstorms along outflow coming out
of MO/OK later this evening, and the HRRR follows suit, albeit
with the convection further north and with somewhat less coverage.

With that in mind, I have introduced some lower grade POPs further
south toward central AR by morning...faster than the NBM brings
anything into the area.

Last but not least, afternoon heat index values across the southern
counties tomorrow will top 105...so I went ahead and issued a heat
advisory for those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Guidance remains in relatively good agreement this afternoon and any
changes to the extended period will be relatively minor. Confidence
remains on the higher side that temperatures will actually average
below seasonal average with at least some chances of precipitation,
especially in the latter part of the period.

Period starts with a highly amplified pattern in place that is
highlighted by upper ridging over the western CONUS and subsequent
downstream troughing stretching from the western gulf coast NE to
the eastern Great Lakes. Surface boundary forecast to be located
over northern Louisiana with ongoing chances of scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the south through Friday. Additional precip
amounts will be minimal with just a few hundredths of an inch
possible.

Front will remain quasi-stationary over northern Louisiana before
starting to retreat back to the north and stalling out over south
Arkansas Sunday. Most of the state, with the exception of the far
south, will be dry on Saturday before widespread precipitation
chances return on Sunday. Precipitation amounts are not expected to
be very high but some areas could pick upwards of a half an inch.

A slightly cooler but noticeably drier airmass will overspread the
region behind the front with both high and low temperatures below
average. Moisture levels will begin to increase as the boundary
moves north but temperatures should stay below average with
increased cloud cover and precipitation chances in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Continue to watch convective complex over north AR. Based on
current trends and model data, most of the activity wl avoid most
of the fcst sites thru the mrng hrs. Have keep VCTS at some sites,
as assocd outflow bndry/s could provide a focus for some further
development. New convection is expected to form later this mrng
ahead of the actual CDFNT that wl work into N AR around midday and
affect central and eventually S AR later in the PD. Flight conds
wl lower where heavier storms occur.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ052-053-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...44