591
FXUS64 KLUB 131742
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Quiet conditions will continue today and tonight. The upper high
currently over the Four Corners will push eastward today and will be
centered over Colorado later tonight. Despite the upper high moving
closer to the FA, thicknesses will remain unchanged from yesterday
and will help keep temps in check this afternoon. The high will,
however, hinder convective chances. A surface low over Colorado will
help keep winds out of the south to southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

- Hot and dry Sunday and Monday.

- A cold front arriving late Tuesday or Wednesday will bring cooler
  temperatures and rain chances through Thursday.

Guidance has trended a little warmer for Monday and Tuesday as the
upper ridge centered over south-central UT, north-central AZ
holds firm. Temperatures could even approach heat advisory
criteria (105F) in the Rolling Plains Monday afternoon with
forecast highs now in the 100F to 104F range.

Tuesday should bring slightly cooler temperatures as the upper
ridge gets squeezed from troughs to the north and south and
heights start to fall across our area. The NBM is holding on to
20-30% PoPs across the west and north Tuesday evening due to the
projection of a front sliding south from the TX Panhandle. This
is despite this area remaining in close proximity to the heart of
the upper ridge. So these PoPs are very dependent on the front
entering the forecast area. The 00Z ECMWF, for example, is dry
Tuesday evening as the front is still well north of the area.

Rain chances should improve Wednesday into Thursday as the upper
ridge retreats slightly westward while the front should ease
through the forecast area. There`s still enough spread in the
strength and timing of the front and the arrival of any upper-
level support as the flow aloft turns northwesterly to keep PoPs
fairly broadbrushed in the 20-40% range through this period. It
should be cooler both days with higher moisture levels and cloud
cover, and Thursday is still looking like the coolest day of the
week with highs mainly in the 80s.

Friday will likely start a warming and drying trend. Although
with the CONUS upper pattern remaining highly amplified, with
northwest Texas positioned in the transition zone between the
upper ridge over the west and and upper low over the Northern
Plains and Midwest, we should see at least the potential for
another front or disturbance aloft heading south through the
region sometime next weekend or early the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR next 24 hours. While not reflected in the TAF due to light
speeds, the wind direction is expected to become more
southwesterly overnight given the weak pressure gradient becoming
southerly as temperatures warm late Sunday morning. Expect plenty
of low level turbulence this afternoon below 11000 MSL where a
weak temperature inversion will cap the thermal bubble machine.
Rides will improve around 01Z as the scattered clouds dissipate.

For those looking to stay cool whilst flying...
This afternoon, you can use this equation to approximate the OAT
up to 11kft.

T(degC) = 34-(3.4*((MSLALT/1000)-3)) where MSLALT is altitude
above MSL in feet. Should be within a degree or so. Stay cool and
check density altitude.



&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...26