Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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913 FXUS64 KLUB 080516 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Surface troughing is strengthening across the western South Plains this afternoon with a weak surface low near Bledsoe. This is leading to a convergence zone across the South Plains with some cumulus noted as of 1:30 pm. This zone will be the feature of interest for thunderstorm development later this afternoon as upper-level lift increases. As the shortwave approaches the region mid-level flow will also increase and improve the effective bulk shear across the South Plains to around 40 kts. Instability is also increasing this afternoon with surface based CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg so this parameter space would support the potential for a few supercells this evening and with fairly straight hodographs splitting supercells are likely. The main threat with this activity will be for damaging straight line winds due to the inverted V soundings but large hail is also possible however with how deep the warm layer is, this should mitigate the overall hail threat. These storms will also be efficient rain producers, however storms motions will be between 15 and 30 mph so overall duration won`t be that long which should limit the flash flood risk. This first round of storms should diminish by midnight across the southern Rolling Plains with mostly dry conditions persisting until Monday morning. Monday morning a surface cold front currently located over southern Kansas will be moving into our forecast area. This front will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms that move to the southeast through the morning hours with the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains being the favored location for this round. This band of thunderstorms may also produce some gusty winds but the main threat will be brief heavy rainfall. Obviously locations that see both rounds of storms will have a higher chance for flooding with the second round however at this time it seems that both rounds will impact different areas with only slight overlap between the two. This front will also bring another shot of cooler air into the region and with the cloudy and rainy start to the day temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with locations on the Caprock struggling to reach 80 degrees while east of the escarpment temperatures should warm into the lower 80s. Showers are expected to persist through the afternoon and early evening hours before the upper-level lift moves east of our forecast area bringing an end to the precipitation by the evening. With skies clearing through the night temperatures will be quite pleasant overnight dropping into the mid 50s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to the mid 60s across the Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tuesday continues to look dry across the entire area ahead of a ridge building to the west and in the absence of any shortwaves. The upper low associated with Beryl will track into the Midwest on Wednesday and its trough axis will move through the area late- evening into early Thursday morning, bringing an increased chance of showers and thuderstorms. Another series of shortwaves next weekend look to continue the storm chances although confidence remains low at this time. Temperatures will slightly increase each day, returning to the mid-to-upper 90s by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Convection has cleared KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW; and VFR will prevail through sunrise amidst a brisk, east-northeasterly wind. Expect CIGs to lower into MVFR and possibly IFR later this morning with the potential for scattered -SHRA and -TSRA to affect all terminals. Overcast will persist heading into the afternoon but CIGs should lift to VFR by then outside of convection. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...09