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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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993 FXUS64 KLUB 161057 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 557 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Amarillo`s 88D at 2 AM showed an outflow boundary drifting south along I40 accompanied by decaying convection. This boundary should stall across our northern counties around daybreak as northerly winds gradually wane, although subtle convergence with hot temps again today could open the door to a few high-based afternoon storms. One factor against storms today concerns a field of convective cloud debris spreading south around a departing upper high to our west. Despite minimal change in thicknesses today, these high clouds may curb highs from reaching convective temps yet still be toasty enough to justify keeping the Heat Advisory across our far northeast counties. Opted to broadbrush 20% PoPs across our northern areas this afternoon for this weakly forced setup. Storm chances look a bit better this evening in our northwest counties as upslope convection in northeast NM drifts southeast, although this will likely lose its vigor as it approaches a lingering W-E ridge axis aloft. One concern overnight is that models are likely underestimating the southern extent of outflow along with renewed and spotty storm development after midnight, so NBM`s low PoPs after midnight were expanded to include all but our far southern row of counties. Subsequently, low temps tonight may need to be revised warmer if cloud debris overnight looks more robust, although for now we`ve kept with the blend`s cooler lows owing to a larger push of outflow on northerly winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The front will be making its way through the FA tomorrow morning and will help to cool high temps. The front will remain in the region through at least late Thursday further cooling highs into the mid 80s/low 90s area wide. The lingering front will also help to increase thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon into late Thursday. Surface flow will return to a more southerly direction by Friday, but this should only increase temps slightly as the upper high will remain to our west over the Four Corners. The location of the upper high will place the FA under north-northwesterly upper flow. While northwesterly upper flow historically provides greater chances for evening and overnight thunderstorms in the form of a MCS, upper flow could have enough of a westerly component to allow terrain induced convection to push southeastward into the FA. If storms fail to move into the FA with this pattern, precip chances will increase by the weekend with the prospects of another cold front moving into the region late Saturday into Sunday morning. The front will be pushed southward by a shortwave trough rotating around the main upper low across eastern Canada. The combination of precip and cold front will help push temps below 90 area wide with some areas possible seeing highs pushing near 80. The upper high is progged to push further west beyond the forecast period with upper flow becoming more northwesterly through late next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR. W-SW winds this morning will turn more S through the afternoon ahead of spotty TS, some which could affect PVW and CDS through the night. A northerly wind shift arrives overnight with additional TS possible, but these should remain isolated. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...93