337
FXUS64 KLUB 171942
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning showed an upper level ridge over
the Intermountain West and a positively tilted upper level trough
extending from near Lake Superior into Ontario. As the trough
deepens and the center of the ridge moves slowly westward through
the short term period, the forecast area will see increasing
northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the 500mb shortwave that helped
initiate last night`s convection in the Texas Panhandle was located
over central Oklahoma this morning. Outflow from these thunderstorms
has pushed south of the CWA ahead of a cold front, which is still
making its way through the southern South and Rolling Plains.

Today`s environment provides two opportunities for precipitation.
First, convection may form along the cold front late this afternoon
as the boundary provides a source of weak convergence in an
environment with CAPE up to 1500 J/kg and highs nearing convective
temperatures. Based on the location of the front, the southern South
and Rolling Plains have a slight chance to see precipitation this
afternoon. Second, upslope flow should aid thunderstorm development
late this afternoon in the high terrain of northeastern New Mexico.
NNW steering flow should allow these storms to propagate towards the
forecast area by late evening into the overnight. The far
southwestern TXPH and the South Plains have the best chance of
seeing precipitation from this second round of thunderstorms.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be more mild compared to
earlier this week, with highs in the 90s this afternoon, then upper
80s and low 90s on Thursday. PoPs were lowered for tomorrow due to
drying mid-levels and the lack of any source of lift save potential
lingering outflow boundaries from tonight`s convection. However,
thunderstorms may still propagate from New Mexico into the western
South Plains Thursday evening given the current steering pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Upper-level ridging will slowly slide westward late this week into
the weekend as upper-level troughing expands across the central
CONUS this weekend into early next week. This will keep the forecast
area under northwesterly to northerly flow and allow for several
chances of precipitation along with more seasonable temperatures for
the long term period. With northwest flow on Thursday evening storms
may propagate into the western South Plains and far southwestern
Texas Panhandle. Friday afternoon will remain dry and should be the
warmest day of the extended period as temperatures warm into the
upper 80s to lower 90s. A shortwave will approach the region Friday
night which will enhance convection across the higher terrain of
northeastern New Mexico and similar to the previous night this
convection should move into our forecast area during the evening and
overnight hours. This convection may persist into Saturday morning
as a surface cold front moves into the forecast area. Depending on
how quickly this front moves south additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening along
and south of it. An additional shortwave is expected to rotate
across the area Sunday night which should lead to another round of
evening and overnight convection moving from northeastern New
Mexico into West Texas. With troughing remaining over the forecast
area early next week temperatures will remain slightly below
average for this time of year mostly in the 80s. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
except during possible thunderstorms this evening and overnight.
Due to the location of the weak cold front by this evening,
confidence is somewhat higher in storms affecting LBB and points
west and south. Thus, a PROB30 for this evening has been kept for
LBB at the 18Z TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds, lightning,
and drops in visibility due to rain are expected with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58/DF
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58/DF