447
FXUS64 KLUB 182305
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

An upper level trough tracking through NE CONUS in addition to an
upper level ridge and associated high pressure system domination
over the desert southwest will lead to northwest flow over the FA.
This northwest flow overhead will lead to increased chances for
precipitation this evening and once again tomorrow evening.

Isolated thunderstorm chances remain in tact this afternoon with a
cumulus field in its infancy being detected via satellite across
portions of the northern South Plains and far southern Texas
Panhandle.  Regardless of increased moisture (PWATs~1.5" and
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s) and MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg, a few caveats may limit thunderstorm potential this afternoon
with a much cooler atmosphere in place which may work to limit our
instability this afternoon. In addition, a very weakly forced
environment remains locked in place with no forcing aloft being
detected by models and WV imagery. Although there are some things to
overcome this afternoon there are some positives to think about. One
being the boundary layer is expected to mix down this afternoon,
despite cooler temperatures, which will likely break the capping
inversion in place overhead. Uncertainty remains on the coverage of
afternoon thunderstorms with development likely occurring along
remaining outflow boundaries tracking through the region from last
nights convection. A secondary chance for thunderstorms late this
evening will once again come from upslope flow induced thunderstorms
moving east-southeast from the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico
and may linger through the overnight hours. The severe weather
threat remains low this afternoon with inverted-v soundings and
DCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg suggesting the primary threat with
thunderstorms being wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The 595 dam upper level ridge is expected to slightly strengthen
tomorrow afternoon which will lead to increased thickness values
across the FA. This in combination with southerly surface flow will
lead to high temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow in the low
to mid 90s. A weak shortwave along the eastern side of the ridge and
east-southeast flow will lead to yet another chance for
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Latest high resolution guidance
has thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain tracking in
east- southeast into the FA. For more information regarding
tomorrows storms potential read the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The story of the week will come mostly off the back of a very
persistent meridional flow in the upper atmosphere. With a ridge
off to the west and a trough to the northeast the flow for the
forecast area will remain dominantly from the northwest. Thanks to
this northwesterly flow, the region will enter a cooler than
seasonal period, with high temperatures staying between the mid
80`s and lower 90`s. Accompanying this northwesterly flow will be
higher than typical storm chances for the region.

The first of these storm chances will be Friday night with storms
forming in Northeast New Mexico traveling southeast into the area. A
cold front will pass over the area Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to the best storm chances for the period. Although these
storms are several days away, it seems unlikely they will produce
much of a severe threat, with very little wind shear and CAPE.
However, these storms will most likely be high based, meaning they
may be able to produce strong gusts. Other than any storm influence,
winds are expected to remain quite calm for the entire forecast
period. Towards the end of the forecast period the ridge to the west
is expected to begin shifting towards the east, breaking the area
out of the cooler spell. Temperatures will begin to recover and
storm chances will drop in association to the ridge position.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Storms to the west of KLBB/KPVW should continued to diminish early
this evening leading to quiescent VFR flying conditions overnight.
We could see some scattered storms about Friday afternoon but
confidence is much too low to mention in TAF ATTM. Low level
thermal turbulence should smooth out around 8pm local and get
going again around 9am local on Friday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...26