032
FXUS64 KLUB 152330
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

An upper-level ridge was located over the Southern Rockies this
morning, with a positively tilted trough stretching from east Texas
up to the Great Lakes region. The forecast area remains under the
east side of this ridge through the short term period. Meanwhile, a
500mb shortwave is expected to move into the panhandles of Texas and
Oklahoma overnight tonight.

With subsidence aloft, light winds, and clear skies today, hot
temperatures are expected this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect until 7pm for the far southeast TXPH and the northeast
Rolling Plains, where temperatures are expected to surpass 105
degrees F. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form in the TXPH and propagate south as the 500mb shortwave
approaches. This activity should have all but dissipated by the
time it reaches the CWA, though the far southern TXPH may see an
isolated shower or two after midnight. Temperatures will be just
as hot tomorrow, warranting a Heat Advisory from 1-7pm Tuesday in
the same areas as today.

Due to the timing of the shortwave, SBCAPE values on Tuesday will
reach a maximum in the morning hours. However, marginal instability
(CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg) will still be present into the late
afternoon, particularly across the far southern TXPH. The most
likely area for CI will be along any remaining outflow boundaries
from tonight`s convection, which most likely would be located across
the far southern TXPH. This may help to overcome the inversion in
place across the forecast area, although the location and magnitude
of convergence along the outflow remains uncertain at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The upcoming week can be characterized by ridging out west and in
the western Atlantic surrounding a weakness over SERN TX. The
best H2 speed max this week will be situated over the Great Lakes
into tomorrow though we`ll see some changes in synoptic scale
morphology over the next week.

A positively tilted trough across Ontario and the upper Mississippi
Valley will sharpen on Tuesday evening while a shortwave trough
comes ashore the Pacific NW.  The Pac NW will ride over the top of
the ridge (across the Canadian Rockies) then dive southeast into
the central plains by late Friday. During the period from Tuesday
night through Friday night an increasingly sharp trough is
expected to expand southward from the upper Mississippi Valley
into ERN TX/LA.  Synoptic effects on WTX weather / upper level
flow will vary depending on the positioning of the mid CONUS low.
Most notable will be a period of NW flow aloft Thursday into
Friday then again on Saturday evening into Sunday.

Tuesday evening s should see a complex of storms over SWRN KS INVOF a
surface front.  The outflow from these storms should reinforce the
southward surge of northerly winds though the resulting theta-e of
the airmass behind the initial boundary would not be characteristic
of a honest front.  Storms should largely stay north of the area
though, this time of year, guidance often struggles with prospects
for overnight convection given the sparsity of mid level data out
this way.  On Wednesday, storms should be able to develop along the
remnant outflow boundary perhaps aided by a surge of the actual back-
door frontal boundary.  In reality, guidance has been having a hard
time with geographical evolution of these summertime fronts.
Indeed, the convection could fire south of the CWFA on Wednesday,
but uncertainty dictates we keep the forecast with a risk of
storms as past results does not guarantee future results. By
Thursday, the theta-e fields would suggest that the actual
intended frontal airmass will finally make it into the area. Will
it be cold? Definitely not, but at least temperatures on Wed/Thu
should be a few degrees below seasonal averages.

Friday looks interesting given what looks to be a possible NW flow
aloft event.  While precip fields appear to support storms, the mid
to upper level flow does look to be a bit northerly for a classical
setup, but things can change between now and then...and probably
will.  Saturday night and Sunday`s guidance with the ECM and GFS
both show widespread storm chances across the southern plains and
southern Rockies.  Overall, this looks over-done for this time of
year esepcially given a lack of forcing.  Additionally, the forecast
soundings would not suggest nearly as much opportunity for precip.
Yet, given the uncertainty, the blends keep mentionable TSTM
chances every day starting tomorrow evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR expected to continue through the next 24 hours. Some TS may
develop near CDS towards the end of this TAF period, but given low
confidence this potential will be addressed in later TAF
issuances.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...30