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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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937 FXUS63 KLSX 200745 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 245 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tranquil weather continues today with increasing cloud cover and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. - There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day from Sunday through late next week. There will be plenty of dry time, and severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Another tranquil day is in store today as surface high pressure releases its last breath of influence on our region before exiting east. The greatest difference we`ll see today from days past will be the arrival of mid and high cloud cover ahead of our next system. Otherwise, expect high temperatures to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, warmest in areas that receive the most sun exposure. The first potential for precipitation will arrive early Sunday morning as mid-level ascent and moisture increase with a weak passing shortwave. Most deterministic guidance has some semblance of light showers in the pre-dawn hours. However, sounding data shows a stout dry layer in the low-levels. With weak lift and a respectable dry sub-cloud layer, confidence is low in light rain reaching the ground. Therefore, opted to maintain sub-15% PoPs. The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases during the day Sunday, but plenty of dry time is expected. Despite the arrival of another shortwave and more low-level moisture, ascent, shear, and instability will still be incredibly low and not conducive for the development or maintenance of updrafts. Jaja && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The potential for thunderstorms increases beginning Monday as low- level moisture continues to filter into the region and instability rises accordingly. By Monday morning, a stationary front will be settled in the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys as well, serving as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development as shortwaves rotate through the larger scale mid-level trough. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will exist Monday and Tuesday afternoon as a more pronounced shortwave ejects into the Ohio Valley from the south central Plains. This feature will provide increased ascent and moisture to the southern CWA, closer to its track. Dewpoints these days will reach the upper 60s and 70s, and SBCAPE will climb closer to the 750 to 1000 J/kg range each afternoon. Although the potential for convective development will be highest these afternoons, severe weather probabilities still remain low. The increased parameters are still weak, and a lack of bulk shear will keep thunderstorms from organizing. Pulse type thunderstorms are the expected mode. The potential for showers and thunderstorms is expected to continue for as long as the mid-level trough and stationary front are present to interact with each other. There is uncertainty regarding when these features move on and regarding the pattern overall. Deterministic models are showing an earlier dissipation of the front than in previous runs, and as a result the latest NBM has cut PoPs by up to 20% late next week. However, guidance is consistent in another mid-level trough dipping into the Great Lakes during the middle of the week. This may potentially lay another boundary down somewhere in the Midwest that could act as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms late in the week. If this does occur, weak ascent and shear will again limit the potential for severe weather. In short, uncertainty in mid-level pattern make it difficult to pinpoint exactly how long active weather will continue. For the temperature forecast, there is high confidence in below average temperatures lasting until late this week. However, upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints will remind us that it`s still July. Jaja && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A majority of the forecast period will be dry and VFR at all local terminals. Fog may develop tonight, particularly in the river vallies. However, the signal for fog development is weak, so confidence is low. The most likely terminal for impacts is KSUS, but impacts due to fog can`t be ruled out at KCPS too. Any fog that develops tonight will dissipate with the rising sun Saturday morning. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX