Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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196 FXUS63 KLSX 050808 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After slightly below average temperatures today, near average temperatures will persist through the weekend and into next week. - The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms is Sunday evening through Monday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms, as well as the cold front, will exit the region by 12z with dry conditions for the rest of the day. Will allow and/or cancel the Flood Watch by 10z Saturday. Otherwise, as a surface ridge begins to build into the area a secondary shortwave will slide southeast on the backside of the system anchored over the Great Lakes. However, the main energy and dynamics are well northeast of the region, so only expect diurnal cu development this afternoon. With some weak CAA moving in today, as well as lower humidity, highs will be slightly below average in the upper 70s to mid 80s. With the ridge overhead tonight, the combination of light and variable winds as well as clear skies will allow for plenty of radiational cooling. Lows tonight will dip down into the 60s, but remain near normal for this time of year. Another dry and sunny day on Saturday with light northwest to west winds and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Byrd && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The latest LREF cluster analysis has good agreement with timing, strength and location of an upper level trough that will deepen over the Northern/Central Plains with an upper level ridge retrograding back over the West Coast. Also, as the surface ridge slides off to the east, low level flow will become south to southwesterly once again, ushering in increasing moisture and instability. The latest deterministic as well as ensembles indicate that multiple shortwaves will round the longwave trough providing several opportunities for more showers and storms from Sunday night through the rest of next week. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal through all of next week. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Some lingering smoke from 4th of July fireworks may periodically reduce surface visibilities to MVFR levels this evening, but this is likely to occur prior to 06Z. The primary concern continues to be the potential for a round of showers and thunderstorms overnight, particularly at St. Louis metro area terminals. St. Louis will likely be located along the northern periphery of these storms, so there remains some uncertainty regarding whether local terminals, including STL, will be directly impacted. The TAF will be amended as confidence increases enough to include a prevailing mention in the TAF. Otherwise, ceilings may briefly drop to MVFR levels during and shortly after showers/storms move through the area. VFR conditions are expected to persist the remainder of the period, with breezy northwest winds developing tomorrow afternoon and ending quickly after sunset. BRC && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO- Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX