433
FXUS66 KLOX 141044
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
344 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/204 AM.

There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon over the
mountains, otherwise skies will be clear save for the night
through morning low clouds across the coasts. A cooling trend
will continue across the area through at least Tuesday before a
warming trend develops for the end of next week. Extreme heat is
possible across the interior by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/233 AM.

The marine layer has shrunk to under 900 ft. There are also 2 mb
offshore trends from both north and east. These two things have
caused the marine layer stratus to form slower this morning and
will likely stay confined to the coasts.

The upper high has pushed far enough to the east that only area at
risk of monsoon flow is the eastern LA mtns and eastern Antelope
Vly where there is a 20 percent chc of a thunderstorm this
afternoon. The moisture is quite high based which will greatly
increase the chc for dry lightning.

As the warmth and subsidence from the upper high moves eastward
temps should cool across the area. There is, however, a 25
percent chc that the sunnier skies and the offshore trends will
actually bring some warming to some areas - notably the LA/VTA
csts/vlys and SLO and SBA counties.

Benign weather is on tap for Mon and Tue. Srn CA will be in
between an upper high to the east and troffing to the NW. This
will result in dry SW flow aloft over the area. Hgts will be near
592 dam. There will be weak onshore flow on Monday with a little
stronger push to the east on Tuesday. Night through morning low
clouds will persist across all of the coasts and may penetrate
into the lower vlys.

Due to the offshore trends some areas (mostly in SLO and SBA
counties) are now forecast to warm some on Monday. The SBA south
coast may see the biggest warm up as local northerly flow develops
across the county. Tuesday remains the coolest day of the next 7
as onshore flow increases again. Look for 1 to 3 degrees of
cooling with most areas except the Antelope Valley coming in 2-4
degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/309 AM.

Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show the upper
high strengthening and pushing to the west. Hgts will push up to
near 596 dam again. Moderate onshore flow to the east will
continue but the N/S gradient will turn offshore in the morning.
This will kick off a warming trend starting Wednesday and
persisting into next weekend, especially for interior areas.

By Saturday max temps across the Antelope Vly are fcst to be near
110 degrees again and another round of excessive heat warnings
looks likely. The lower elevation mtn locations and other
interior areas are fcst to see highs between and 100 and 105,
which would put them just under warning criteria.

While not in the best of agreement there is decent consensus among
the long range mdls that the upcoming heat wave will break next
Monday as the upper high diminishes.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0543Z.

At 04Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3800 feet with a temperature of 29 deg C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in KBUR and KVNY. There is a 20% chance of
LIFR conds 12Z-15Z.

Low confidence in coastal TAFs with flight cat changes off by a
possible +/- 3 hours. There is 30% chance of LIFR conditions,
with the best chances being at KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 2SM
OVC004 conds through 15Z. There is a 25 percent chc that VFR conds
will arrive at 19Z and a 15 percent chc of 17Z. No significant
east wind component is expected.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance
of 1SM OVC003 conds 12Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...14/344 AM.

In the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are not
expected thru Sun night. In the northern zone (PZZ670), there is
a 30% chance of SCA winds Mon afternoon thru Wed night, mainly
during the afternoon/evening hours. SCA conds are likely (60%
chance) Thu/Thu night. In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676),
there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds Mon thru Wed morning,
especially during the afternoon/evening hours. SCA conds are
likely (70% chance) Wed afternoon thru Thu night.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 20% chance of SCA
conds in the afternoon/evening hours Mon thru Wed, with a 40-50%
chance Thu afternoon/eve. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected
thru Thu night.

In the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, there is a
20-30% chance of SCA winds across the far western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel late each afternoon thru the late night
hours Tue thru Thu. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

A long period south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and may
lead to elevated surf conditions and high rip current potential
near the beached thru the week. Patchy dense fog will reduce
visibilities to one quarter mile or less this morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis/Rorke
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox