605
FXUS63 KLMK 070534
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
134 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Dry through early next week. Moisture associated with tropical
    cyclone Beryl look increasingly more likely to move into the
    Ohio and Tennessee Valleys starting as early as Tuesday. Heavy
    rainfall will be possible at times through the middle of next
    week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mostly clear evening out there, but just a few patches of clouds.
Have some higher clouds streaming over southeast KY, but these are
fairly thin. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s for most at this
hour, and readings should be on their down to the 60s by daybreak
Sunday. Ongoing forecast looks good and just made a tweak to match
current obs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Broad surface high pressure will keep conditions relatively calm and
quiet through the near term. The afternoon cu-field should steadily
dissipate as we approach sunset and give way to clear skies. High
pressure centered over MO/AR will steadily drift into the Ohio
Valley by dawn tomorrow, allowing winds going light to calm
overnight. This should result in a pretty optimal radiational
cooling setup and lows by sunrise tomorrow will likely fall into the
low/mid 60s for many locations. River valley fog is also likely in
the typical fog-prone locations.

Conditions tomorrow should be very similar to today, with only
slightly warmer temperatures anticipated as low-level thicknesses
rise. Highs will likely climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, though
with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s that should help to take a
slight `edge` off the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Low level moisture will begin to steadily return to the region
Monday as flow takes on a more southerly component. With the
increased moisture, we should see capping in the low levels erode by
the afternoon. Without much in the way of a forcing mechanism in
place, any convection that does develop will be isolated/scattered
in nature.

As early as Tuesday, a moisture plume ahead of what is left of
tropical cyclone Beryl will advance into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Beryl`s track will be largely influenced by how troughing
evolves over the central U.S., but the latest guidance has us under
the influence of its moisture through at least Wednesday (or
Thursday, depending on the model). Too early to say how much rain
may fall given we`re several days out, but the potential for heavy
rainfall certainly exists. There are even some synoptic signals for
a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) ahead of the main
circulation of Beryl which will need to be watched closely.

Beryl and its associated moisture should lift out of the region by
Thursday or Friday, though we may still stay unsettled at times
going into the early weekend as the aforementioned central U.S.
trough is slow to move/lift.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through most if not all of the current
forecast period as high pressure continues to dominate over the
region. The one caveat would be brief visibility reductions from
patchy fog between now and sunrise. Crossover temp analysis suggests
the greatest potential will be at HNB/RGA; have taken out fog
mention at BWG, though the forecast remains low confidence and a
short-fuse addition may be needed.

Otherwise, any lower visibilities should clear by 12-13Z, with high
confidence in VFR conditions through the remainder of the current
forecast period. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...CSG