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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
483 FXUS65 KLKN 162156 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 256 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions along with breezy to locally windy conditions expected through early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for the weekend across eastern and east-central Nevada. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Satellite loop this afternoon is showing mostly sunny skies over northern and central Nevada. The weather is expected to remain quiet during the overnight tonight with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. For Saturday and Saturday night, upper level ridging will continue to remain over the New Mexico area with an upper level trough digging south, off the coast or Oregon and California. This will bring a southwest flow over the area during the day with breezy to locally windy conditions. Southwest winds will be 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph, though stronger winds are expected in central Nevada and northern Humboldt county with gusts to 40 mph. Moisture moving north from southern Nevada and Arizona will enter east-central Nevada during the afternoon hours. Precipitable water values will rapidly climb to greater than eight-tenths of an inch over portions of White Pine and eastern Elko counties. Lifted indices will become negative and CAPE values will range between 300 and 800 J/kg. This environment will be conducive to producing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms mainly across the eastern third of the forecast area tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Look for the shower activity to continue into the early to mid evening, then diminishing after midnight. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. Synoptic pattern Sunday defined by a deep upper closed low circulating along the coast of the PacNW, while high pressure resides over the Texas panhandle. This will produce strong confluent southwesterly flow over Nevada. This setup generally maintains a north-northeast to south-southwest boundary across the forecast area which WPC has analyzed as a stationary front. Subsequently allowing for modest PWATs and instability across the eastern half of the forecast area while better moisture and instability lie to the east within Utah thanks to a more southerly component of the flow associated with the high over Texas advecting subtropical moisture north. Latest progs put PWAT values around 0.75 Sunday afternoon, slightly drier Monday afternoon around 0.60. Isolated to scattered showers and mixed mode thunderstorms, though mostly dry, will be present Sunday and Monday afternoons and evenings across the eastern half of the state with no significant accumulation expected for most. South- southwest surface gradient winds will also be strong with gusts 25 to 30mph. Daytime high temperatures both days will be in the low 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Pattern progresses mid week as the cut off low weakens to an open wave and ejects east across the PacNW while the next upper PV anomaly moves south along the Canadian coast, reforming a cut off upper low that looks to be positioned along the Oregon coast late Thursday or early Friday. This feature will be progressive, quickly moving inland during the Friday night to Saturday time frame. Either way, upper troffing will persist overall along the west coast with strong southwesterly flow continuing across the Great Basin with continued afternoon breezes and gusty winds. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be pushed east and out of the forecast region Tuesday in conjunction with the ejecting trof. Weather remains mostly dry though isolated showers and thunderstorms may creep back into the forecast area along the Utah border Thursday and Friday afternoons before the second trof progression again pushes activity east. Temperatures look to be seasonable midweek and beyond, becoming cooler than average for the weekend. && .AVIATION...Gusty winds trend lighter thru this evening with fair weather and light winds expected tonight while VFR conditions prevail. VFR conditions expected at all terminals tomorrow though generally south-southwest winds will again be present across the region with gusts 20-25KTS in the afternoon and evening. VCTS also present at KELY and KEKO with the more consistent thunderstorm activity to the east of KEKO thanks to a boundary running roughly north-northeast to south-southwest thru the state, indicated to be positioned nearly over KEKO tomorrow. Any storms that move on terminal will bring strong and erratic wind gusts of 40+KTS, localized blowing dust, and potentially brief heavy rainfall and pea sized hail and MVFR conditions due to reduced VIS may be possible. Weather and gusty winds will again dissipate thru tomorrow evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will remain off the Pacific Northwest coast, while a high pressure system is situated over the Desert Southwest. A combination of winds and minimum relative humidity will become critical across portions of central and north-central Nevada. A red flag warning has been issued for zones 426, 427, and 437. Meanwhile, subtropical moisture and instability moving northward will produce a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over zones 425, 469, and 470. The winds and low RH will continue for Sunday in central Nevada, with a red flag warning in effect for 426 and 427. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to continue in zones 425 and 470 through early next week with other areas remaining dry. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday Central Nevada-Toiyabe...Humboldt County-Quinn...Northern Nye County-Mojave. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening White Pine and Northeast Nye Counties. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Sunday Central Nevada-Toiyabe...Northern Nye County-Mojave. && $$ 86/92/92/86