Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
812 FXUS65 KLKN 030842 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 142 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 * A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening today through Friday with lighting and gusty winds possible. * High temperatures through the weekend will be in the 80s and 90s while overnight lows will dip into the 50s and 60s. * Friday afternoon and evening, fire weather concerns become critical over portions of east-central Nevada due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Other areas will remain elevated. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the forecast area this morning. The area is currently sitting north of an upper low across southern California with southwest flow aloft. In addition, another upper trough is coming into view from the eastern Pacific, and its axis is expected to cross into northern California and western Oregon later this afternoon. For today, the southern trough will slowly move to the east. Sufficient moisture and instability this afternoon will allow for the development of thunderstorms (about 10 to 15%) and showers (30 to 40%) but rainfall over observation platforms has been sparse. Winds gusts will be around 25 mph. Any outflows from thunderstorms could produce winds to 50 mph. Highs today will be in the 80s and 90s. Overnight showers are expected though coverage will remain at about 30 to 40%. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. On Friday, the northern trough will skip across the northern sections of the forecast area, north into Oregon and Idaho. Convective activity continues to be expected in northern and eastern Nevada. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Wind gusts are expected to be around 25 mph, though expect higher gusts in White Pine county for Friday afternoon at about 35 mph. Showers will wind down during the overnight with lows in the 40s to near 50s degrees. Saturday through next Wednesday, look for upper level ridging from the southern United States/northern Mexico to gradually build to the west, setting up shop over the four corners by early next week. This will mean gradually warming temperatures through the weekend, reaching the low 90s on Sunday and possibly the mid to upper 90s by mid-week. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s, rising to the 50s and 60s by early next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high with respect to the development of showers and thunderstorms. These storms will tend to be dry during the early afternoon, transitioning to a mix of wet and dry by the early evening. Confidence increases to high for red flag conditions (strong wind, low RH) across portions of east-central Nevada with elevated conditions elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Prevailing VFR conditions expected at all sites, however thunderstorm downdrafts may bring briefly reduced visibility at times due to blowing dust. VCTS expected at all sites this afternoon, along with south to southwest winds gusting 20-25 KT. Convective wind gusts to 45KT are possible this afternoon with any storm. AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across the forecast area due to continued thunderstorms, breezy daytime winds, and low RH values. Additionally, near to critical conditions are expected tomorrow, with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 11 am to 8 pm PDT for zone NV425. Zones NV426 and NV427 also look to be near critical but are not expected to reach Red Flag criteria at this time. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ425. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94