483
FXUS65 KLKN 162156
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
256 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions along with breezy to locally windy
conditions expected through early next week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for the weekend
across eastern and east-central Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Satellite loop this
afternoon is showing mostly sunny skies over northern and central
Nevada. The weather is expected to remain quiet during the
overnight tonight with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

For Saturday and Saturday night, upper level ridging will continue
to remain over the New Mexico area with an upper level trough
digging south, off the coast or Oregon and California. This will
bring a southwest flow over the area during the day with breezy to
locally windy conditions. Southwest winds will be 10 to 20 mph
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph, though stronger winds are expected in
central Nevada and northern Humboldt county with gusts to 40 mph.
Moisture moving north from southern Nevada and Arizona will enter
east-central Nevada during the afternoon hours. Precipitable water
values will rapidly climb to greater than eight-tenths of an inch
over portions of White Pine and eastern Elko counties. Lifted
indices will become negative and CAPE values will range between
300 and 800 J/kg. This environment will be conducive to producing
a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms mainly across the eastern third
of the forecast area tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
mid 90s. Look for the shower activity to continue into the early
to mid evening, then diminishing after midnight. Lows will be in
the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

Synoptic pattern Sunday defined by a deep upper closed low
circulating along the coast of the PacNW, while high pressure
resides over the Texas panhandle. This will produce strong
confluent southwesterly flow over Nevada. This setup generally
maintains a north-northeast to south-southwest boundary across the
forecast area which WPC has analyzed as a stationary front.
Subsequently allowing for modest PWATs and instability across the
eastern half of the forecast area while better moisture and
instability lie to the east within Utah thanks to a more southerly
component of the flow associated with the high over Texas
advecting subtropical moisture north. Latest progs put PWAT values
around 0.75 Sunday afternoon, slightly drier Monday afternoon
around 0.60. Isolated to scattered showers and mixed mode
thunderstorms, though mostly dry, will be present Sunday and
Monday afternoons and evenings across the eastern half of the
state with no significant accumulation expected for most. South-
southwest surface gradient winds will also be strong with gusts 25
to 30mph. Daytime high temperatures both days will be in the low
80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s.

Pattern progresses mid week as the cut off low weakens to an open
wave and ejects east across the PacNW while the next upper PV
anomaly moves south along the Canadian coast, reforming a cut off
upper low that looks to be positioned along the Oregon coast late
Thursday or early Friday. This feature will be progressive,
quickly moving inland during the Friday night to Saturday time
frame. Either way, upper troffing will persist overall along the
west coast with strong southwesterly flow continuing across the
Great Basin with continued afternoon breezes and gusty winds.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be pushed east and out of
the forecast region Tuesday in conjunction with the ejecting trof.
Weather remains mostly dry though isolated showers and
thunderstorms may creep back into the forecast area along the Utah
border Thursday and Friday afternoons before the second trof
progression again pushes activity east. Temperatures look to be
seasonable midweek and beyond, becoming cooler than average for
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty winds trend lighter thru this evening with fair
weather and light winds expected tonight while VFR conditions
prevail. VFR conditions expected at all terminals tomorrow though
generally south-southwest winds will again be present across the
region with gusts 20-25KTS in the afternoon and evening. VCTS also
present at KELY and KEKO with the more consistent thunderstorm
activity to the east of KEKO thanks to a boundary running roughly
north-northeast to south-southwest thru the state, indicated to be
positioned nearly over KEKO tomorrow. Any storms that move on
terminal will bring strong and erratic wind gusts of 40+KTS,
localized blowing dust, and potentially brief heavy rainfall and
pea sized hail and MVFR conditions due to reduced VIS may be
possible. Weather and gusty winds will again dissipate thru
tomorrow evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will remain off the Pacific
Northwest coast, while a high pressure system is situated over
the Desert Southwest. A combination of winds and minimum relative
humidity will become critical across portions of central and
north-central Nevada. A red flag warning has been issued for
zones 426, 427, and 437. Meanwhile, subtropical moisture and
instability moving northward will produce a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms over zones 425, 469, and 470. The winds and low RH
will continue for Sunday in central Nevada, with a red flag
warning in effect for 426 and 427. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected to continue in zones 425 and 470
through early next week with other areas remaining dry.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday Central
Nevada-Toiyabe...Humboldt County-Quinn...Northern Nye
County-Mojave.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening White Pine and
Northeast Nye Counties.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Sunday Central
Nevada-Toiyabe...Northern Nye County-Mojave.

&&

$$

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