193
FXUS65 KLKN 040943
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
243 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure over the Great Basin produces a
stretch of dry weather and a prolonged warming trend. Heat impacts
are almost certain as valley temperatures breach 100F for many
locales over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night

Region of strong high pressure resides along the California coast
this morning with northwesterly flow situated over the forecast
area. High pressure lazily meanders east into the western U.S.
thru Friday with heights gradually increasing over Nevada. Main
sensible weather effects will be dry conditions under mostly sunny
and clear skies along with the typical afternoon breezes also
present with gust 20 to 30 mph throughout the region.

Elevated fire weather condtions will be in place and the proper
precautions should be exercised during any Independence Day
celebrations.

Temperatures will be warm with daytime highs residing in the mid
80s to mid 90s today and overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper
50s. Friday will see daytime highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s
and overnight lows again in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday

High pressure and the associated upper level ridge over the west
coast of the CONUS will be firmly in place by the start of the
forecast period Saturday. The hot, dry air mass will be the status
quo through the weekend into the beginning of the work week as
temperatures climb across the region prompting Excessive Heat
Watch in western and southwestern portions of the CWA Saturday
morning through Wednesday morning next week. The heat also has the
potential to break triple digit records in some locations across
northern Nevada Monday and Tuesday.

High temperatures will gradually rise across the region through
the weekend from upper 90s into the low to mid 100s especially
in western and southern counties of the CWA . Ensemble model
probabilities are confident in better than an 80% chance of 95F or
better for much of the Silver State Sunday through Tuesday.
Overnight lows will provide some relief but gradually warm into
the 60s (and low 70s for lower elevations and valleys) through
the weekend.

Major to extreme HeatRisk values especially in the western and
southwestern counties of the CWA are expected through Wednesday
even as the ridge begins to push eastward by Monday evening. Model
consensus holds the axis of the ridge over the area by Wednesday
morning promoting dry southwest flow. This will do little to abate
the hot temperatures in the region by the end of forecast period
as triple digit high temperatures in some locations will continue
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Light
drainage winds this morning will transition to the northwest
around 10 knots across central and northern Nevada under clear
skies. A strengthening high pressure area will bring increasing
temperatures to many areas leading to increasing density altitude
particularly over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather and a warming temperature trend present
thru the weekend and into next week as high pressure builds over
the Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions will also be
present with minimum afternoon RH values residing less than 15%
into next week, especially paired with afternoon breezes with a
30-40% probability for wind gusts 25 to 30 mph each afternoon and
evening. Winds look to be strongest over this weekend, especially
Sunday afternoon, with a 60-70% probability for wind gusts 25 to
30 mph.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday
morning Humboldt County...Northeastern Nye County...Northern
Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye
County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

&&

$$

92/99/93/92