085
FXUS65 KLKN 201038
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
338 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Robust upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored
over the western United States through early next week. Adequate
subtropical moisture under the ridge will allow for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms to develop across much of the forecast
area each afternoon through early next week. Warm to hot
conditions are expected to continue with headline heat products
valid in the north through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. Skies are mostly clear
over the forecast area this morning. For today, a strong upper
level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across northern
and central Nevada. Precipitable water values are forecast to be
around three-quarters to nine-tenths of an inch in central Nevada,
with about two-thirds of an inch in far northern Nevada. In
addition, instability and weak flow aloft will all lead to another
round of isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Storms in
portions of Humboldt county will remain more on the dry side, with
mostly wet storms in other locations. It will be warm to hot and
various heat advisories and an excessive heat warning are
currently active. Highs will be in the 90s to mid 100s. Winds will
remain light with erratic and gusty winds in and around
thunderstorms. Gradual clearing during the overnight is expected
with lows generally in the 60s.

For Sunday and Sunday night, the center of the upper level ridge
is forecast to remain over the forecast area. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop over the
region as the air mass remains unstable and precipitable water
values are expected to hover around three-quarters to nine-tenths
of an inch. Highs will remain in the 90s to mid 100s with
generally light winds, though gusts to 45 mph or more are
possible in and around thunderstorms. Evening shower activity will
continue for Sunday night with lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

Upper level ridge will remain parked over the Great Basin for most
of the long term period, However by next weekend models show a
upper level trough moving in from the Pacific that will flatten
and weaken the ridge allowing it to shift east over the four
corners region. In terms of sensible weather the mid level
monsoonal moisture will continue to be advected into and over the
Silver state. This will generate daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoons through Saturday with chances
starting at 10% to 30% Monday through Wednesday building up to 40%
to 70% Thursday then as the ridge gets forced SW, POPs drop to 30%
to 50% Friday and back down to 10% to 30% Saturday. In tandem with
the storm chances will be the heat, Which will again be well above
normal with many locations seeing triple digits highs. Excessive
heat warning is in effect for Humboldt county and Heat advisories
are in effect SE Elko, SW Elko, N Elko, N Eureka, and N Lander
Counties through Wednesday night. The good news is as storm
chances peak Thursday and Friday, and with the ridge being
dislodged for the weekend Temperatures will cool back to normal
levels by Saturday. Temperatures will remain in the mid 90s to mid
100s through Wednesday, as clouds increase and the ridge weakens
Highs will drop into the low 90s to low 100s Thursday, and into
the upper 80s to upper 90s Saturday. Overnight lows will be a
concern for any potential for the need to expand/upgrade heat
headlines especially through Wednesday, as lows will range in the
low 60s to low 70s, with the notable exception of the
Wendover/Bonneville salt flats which will range in the mid to
upper 70s. Winds for the extended will be generally out of the
west to SW at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 30
MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight
conditions through Sunday. Mid level monsoonal moisture will again
allow for a 10% to 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms across
most area terminals of KWMC, KBAM, KTPH, and KEKO. A higher
probability of 30% to 60% exist Saturday afternoon for KELY and
along the US-50 corridor. Gusty outflow winds up to 40+ knots,
blowing dust, lightning, and heavy rainfall will be the primary
threats, with storms weakening after sunset. Should a storm impact
a terminal a brief reduction to MVFR to even IFR levels may be
possible. Outside of storms, light to breezy winds from the W to
SW at speeds 5-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Large and expansive upper ridge persists over the
western United States through the weekend. Adequate moisture
under the ridge will allow for continued afternoon isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the forecast
area through early next week with greater activity focused across
central Nevada. Storm modes will continue to be a mix of dry and
wet with dry storms more prevalent mid-day while wet storms become
more probable later in the afternoon and evening. As the high
pressure center migrates over the Great Basin through the day
today, mid-level flow will become very weak and storm motions
very slow, around 5 knots or less. Otherwise surface gradient
winds will be mostly light with modest afternoon breezes though
convective outflows of 45 mph or higher are possible with any
thunderstorm activity. Do not believe critical fire weather
conditions will be met over the next few days, though elevated
risk exists primarily due to lightning and gusty thunderstorm
outflows will be in place. A warming trend will also continue as
the upper level ridge persists over the region. Widespread daytime
high temperatures in the mid 90s or hotter with some locales
reaching into the mid 100s, particularly across fire zone 437.
Heat products have been issued across most of Northern Nevada,
valid through mid-week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT
Wednesday Humboldt County.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Wednesday
Northern Elko County...Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County...Southeastern Elko County...Southwest Elko County.

&&

$$

86/98/98/86