473
FXUS65 KLKN 020958
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
258 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 239 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

* A few strong thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening
  today through Friday with isolated dry lighting possible

* High temperatures through the weekend will be in the 80s and 90s
  while overnight lows will dip into the 40s and 50s.

* Friday afternoon and evening, there is a potential for critical
  fire weather conditions for central and eastern sections of the
  forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain mostly cloudy across the
eastern half of the state with the western half sees mostly clear
conditions. There was early evening convection that produced a
fairly large dust plume in far west-central Nevada. This plume has
moved east and north and is currently affecting portions of
northern Lander/Eureka counties. With limited wind, it will be
slow to settle out.

For today, an upper closed low pressure system will continue it
slow, eastward trek across the southwestern United States. The
center of circulation will be over southern California by later
this afternoon. The resulting southerly flow will continue to push
higher precipitable water air (0.60 to 0.75 inches) across
eastern and northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Forecast CAPE will
be around 100-350J/kg with highest amounts in east-central and
northeast Nevada this afternoon. Expecting another day of isolated
high based convection with little, if any precipitation, reaching
the ground. Though convection is expected to remain on the dry
side to start out the afternoon, areal coverage is not expected to
surpass critical thresholds. High temperatures will generally run
in the 80s to low 90s. Winds will be breezy with gusts to 25 mph,
though some storms may produce convective wind gusts to 55 mph.
Look for the isolated thunderstorms to transition to a mix of wet
and dry storms later this afternoon and evening with light rain
showers continuing into the overnight. Lows will be in the 40s and
50s.

Thursday and Friday, the aforementioned closed low is expected to
open and slide to the east on Thursday. The flow will change to
the southwest. Isolated thunderstorms and isolated to scattered
showers will develop mainly north of US Highway 50 during the
afternoon. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s once again with breezy
afternoon winds with gusts to 25 mph; however, thunderstorm winds
gusts could reach 45 mph. Look for the activity to diminish during
the overnight with lows in the 40s and 50s. By Friday, another
trough, this time moving across the Pacific Northwest. This will
bring stronger winds to the forecast area, especially across
central Nevada. Will need to continue watching this for fire
weather concerns. Leftover moisture and instability will help to
generate isolated storms north of I-80. Highs will be in the 80s
and low 90s once again with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the weekend, though
some models are depicting a weak upper wave moving across the
latter portions of the weekend. At this time it looks dry. Highs
will be in the 80s and 90s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Monday
through Wednesday, the upper ridge tries to build over the Desert
Southwest with building high temperatures again, possibly into the
mid to upper 90s.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is a moderate to high
confidence of a continuation of isolate thunderstorms and isolated
to scattered showers today and Thursday as increased moisture
moves northward around a weak low over California.

There is moderate confidence for near critical fire weather
conditions over southern and eastern sections of our forecast area
and low confidence of near critical fire weather conditions over
portions of Humboldt, and western Elko Counties. There is also low
confidence on Friday for isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) over
western portions of Humboldt, Lander & Eureka counties and low to
moderate confidence for afternoon and evening thunderstorms over
eastern Elko and White Pine counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through at least
the next 24 hours. The exception is KBAM where dust from outflow
winds yesterday have settled over the terminal, bringing reduced
visibility of one mile or less and low CIGS. Breezy winds later
today will help to scour out the dust, after 18Z. High based
thunderstorms should develop in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, and
KENV this afternoon. South to southwest wind gusts near 25 knots
are expected at KEKO, KELY, KTPH, and KENV Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. South to southwest wind gusts near 20
knots are anticipated at KWMC and KBAM Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today with daytime
winds 10-20 mph and low RH values. Monsoonal moisture continues to
creep into the area and is expected to spark thunderstorm
formation beginning in Central Nevada before spreading across the
entire forecast area. Thursday looks much the same, with continued
breezy daytime winds, low RH values, and afternoon thunderstorms,
this time beginning in Northern Nevada. The next weather system
for Friday brings the potential for critical RH/wind conditions
to zones 426 and 427 for the afternoon and will need to be
watched.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...94