831
FXUS65 KLKN 172127
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
227 PM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Robust upper ridge remains anchored over the western
U.S. into early next week and adequate subtropical moisture under
the ridge will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
be present across much of the forecast area as well. A gradual
warming trend will also be present with daytime highs creeping
into the mid 90s to low 100s by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Night

Robust upper ridge remains situated across the western U.S. and
Canada with high pressure centered over the four corners area.
Meanwhile, an upper low begins to build over the Gulf of Alaska
with south-southwesterly flow situated over the forecast area.
Adequate sub tropical moisture also persists, which has resulted in
afternoon shower and thunderstorm production today with progs
advertising PWAT values between 0.50" and 0.75". Showers and
thunderstorms will weaken and dissipate thru this evening with dry
and fair weather expected tonight under clearing skies. Overnight
low temperatures will mostly be in the 50s.

Overall, similar weather is expected for Thursday as the synoptic
pattern remains unchanged though PWATs are indicated to increase
as high as 0.90" for some locales by the afternoon. Another round
of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms is expected with
activity expanding in areal coveragte across central Nevada.
Humboldt County looks to reamin mostly dry. Storm modes will again
be a mix of dry and wet with dry thunderstorms more apparent mid
day before transitioning to mostly wet later in the afternoon. With
PWAT values around 0.90", wetting rains are certainly possible
under stronger storms. The main threats however will be lightning
and gusty outflow winds of 45+ mph. Showers and thunderstorms
again weaken and dissipate thru Thursday evening with dry and
fair weather overnight. Look for daytime high temperatures in the
upper 80s to upper 90s with overnight lows mostly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

Heat related concerns and afternoon thunderstorms are the focus
of the long term forecast through next Wednesday. An upper level
high pressure center and associated ridge will continue to
retrograde westward Friday over the western CONUS. Heat risk will
become an issue by the weekend as the system stagnates over much
of the western CONUS. This will be the catalyst for the persistent
hot pattern over the region through next Wednesday. A large upper
level trough sporting a tight pressure gradient will begin to
swing southward into the Pacific NW from western Canada signaling
a potential change in weather pattern by the end of the work week.

Convective chances will vary over the forecast period beginning
Friday with convective chances for portions of Nye, White Pine,
and Elko counties. Chances become more widespread over the weekend
as heat induced forcing will tap into what moisture exists over
the Silver State for convective chances for the majority of the
CWA excluding Humboldt county. While the heat remains into the
next work week chances for thunderstorms become more confined to
mainly northeastern Elko county, and the southern extents of the
CWA over Nye and White Pine counties. QPF probabilities remain low
for un-elevated locations in the area signaling mostly dry
thunderstorms associated with these convective chances.

Heat risk will be a major concern especially for Humboldt county
and northwest portions of Elko county this weekend and into next
week with highs reaching into the 100s Saturday through Tuesday.
Plan to take action to reduce time outdoors, drink plenty of
water, and remain in air-conditioned buildings. This heat could
begin to abate Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level trough to
the north begins to push the persistent high pressure system to
the east.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected today. Better chances for
shower and thunderstorm activity exists for KEKO and KELY (10% to
30%) this afternoon, while gusty afternoon winds will be the
concern for KWMC, KBAM, and KTPH. In and around the thunderstorm
activity, gusty outflow winds up to 40+ knots, blowing dust,
lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.
Storms are expected to weaken by the late evening hours. Outside
of storms, breezy winds from the W-SW at 10-15 knots with gusts up
to 25-30 knots possible. Wind gust concerns die down later this
evening along with thunderstorm chances for all terminals.
Variable light winds overnight with few clouds over eastern and
central Nevada will continue into Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Upper level ridge encompasing the western U.S.
and a high pressure center situated over the four-corners region
maintain control of the weather into early next week. South to
southwest flow continues over the region with isolated to
scattered showers thunderstorms forecast each afternoon across
much of the forecast area with zone 437 being the exception as
mostly storm free condtions look to prevail. Storm modes will be
generally mixed dry and wet as indicated by the latest moisture
progs. Winds will be mostly light with modest afternoon breezes
though convective outflows to 40+ mph are expected under any
thunderstorm activity. Do not believe critical fire weather
conditions will be met at anytime thru the period, though
elevated risk primarily due to lightning and gusty thunderstorm
outflows will certainly be in place. A warming trend will also
continue as the upper level ridge persists over the western U.S.
Temperatures widespread in the mid 90s or hotter will be present
by this weekend with some locales reaching into the low 100s,
particularly across zone 437.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

92/99/99/92