665
FXUS64 KLIX 130925
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
425 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Latest upper level analysis shows the typical Desert Southwest and
Bermuda ridges in place with a shallow trough in place between them.
This pattern is relatively typical for summer with diurnally driven
convection expected. With such little change in the synoptic pattern
from yesterday to today, not much a reason think storm development
would be drastically different. That means current nocturnal marine
activity will begin to fade mid morning, with showers and storms
developing farther inland the remainder of the day. The
deterministic NBM still shows very high coverage throughout the day.
CAMs have been and likely will continue to be the better models to
mirror for today`s POPs. Typically high PW`s combined with storm
interactions with outflow and seabreeze boundaries increase the
potential for urban flash flooding. Otherwise, the arguably more
large scale weather impact today (and well into next week) will be
continued heat. Highs in the mid/upper 90s combined with upper 70 to
low 80 dewpoints will again bring heat indices in the 108 to 112
degree range.

Models show the upper trough to the north shifting east on Sunday.
Although this won`t make any apprecible difference in local temps,
slightly less subsidence over the CWA is probable as the trough
slightly erodes the western side of the Bermuda ridge. This will
allow for greater convective coverage and the latest POP forecast
reflects this. Heat Advisory has been extended to Sunday peak
heating hours.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The remainder of the forecast period, which runs through Friday,
heat will be the biggest impact. The upper ridge centered west of
the CWA will try to expand across the southern half of the country.
That`ll keep highs in the mid to upper 90s. Not going to see much
nighttime relief from heat. Even through convective coverage will
vary from scattered to numerous each day, still probably will need a
heat advisory for 5 to 6 consecutive days of a heat advisory in
effect, with the potential for a small portion of the forecast area
to need an Excessive Heat Warning early/mid next week. It`s the end
of this portion of the forecast period that global models suggest
that a fairly amplified upper trough dives south across the eastern
1/3 of the US. That would certainly break down the ridge aloft and
lead to temps closer to climo.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Expecting VFR conditions early this morning, but will likely see
another round of isolated coastal showers between 10-14Z. Did
mention VCSH for KNEW briefly but will dissipate before more
scattered TSRA develops between 18-00Z. Best period for coverage
will be around mid to late afternoon, bringing periodic reduced
VIS/CIGs dropping flight categories at times, but will remain
largely VFR outside of any TSRA activity. Calm/quiet going beyond 01-
02Z with a few lingering storms dissipating with time.

KLG
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The area will remain under surface ridge for the most part,
although the center will not always be aloft during the forecast
period. That means winds and seas wont` be much impact outside of
convection, with seas 2 feet or less throughout the period.
Otherwise, typical summertime nocturnal to early morning showers and
storms expected with brief gusty winds and waterspouts the main
threats.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  74  93  73 /  30  30  70  10
BTR  97  78  96  78 /  30  30  70  10
ASD  95  77  95  77 /  30  30  70  10
MSY  94  79  94  79 /  30  30  70  10
GPT  93  77  93  78 /  30  40  60  10
PQL  97  77  97  76 /  30  30  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...ME