900
FXUS64 KLIX 132036
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
336 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Upper ridges centered from Bermuda to the eastern Gulf of Mexico
to our east and over the Four Corners area to the west. In
between, a trough axis extended from Lake Ontario to western
Kentucky to Oklahoma. Precipitable water values were generally
right around 2 inches across the area as noted by upper air
soundings and satellite derived data.

Most of the morning across the area saw little in the way of cloud
cover, but as temperatures warmed into the lower and middle 90s,
isolated to scattered convection developed along lake and sea
breeze boundaries. Many areas reached Heat Advisory criteria (108F
heat index), at least briefly, with the isolated storms producing
only localized relief. Expect most, or all, of the activity to
dissipate with the loss of surface heating in a few hours.

The western ridge may expand eastward slightly on Sunday, pushing
the trough axis a bit closer to the area. Don`t really see much
change in forecast moisture levels, nor in expected convective
temperatures (generally lower 90s), so it wouldn`t be surprising
at all to see a repeat scenario of convective initiation on
land/sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon. Maybe a little
better areal coverage with the trough being a bit closer, but
that`s it. As has been the case for multiple days, one or two of
the storms could produce localized very heavy rainfall rates, but
that should be the exception to the rule.

Will keep the Heat Advisory in place for Sunday, but quite a few
areas may see relief from the heat with thunderstorm outflows
during the late afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Upper weakness remains near or over the local area for much of the
week. Not a lot to differentiate one day from another regarding
temperatures or rain chances until perhaps the end of the week,
when a northern stream shortwave attempts to push the trough axis
across the area. This might provide somewhat better areal coverage
of storms and slightly "cooler" temperatures. Many areas are
likely to get at least close to Heat Advisory criteria each day,
but do not expect to reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria (113F
heat index). Did not depart from NBM deterministic values to any
great degree.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Up until about an hour before forecast issuance there was little
in the way of clouds across local terminals. However, as
temperatures got into the lower and middle 90s, the cumulus field
increased significantly. There has been isolated convection
develop since 1700z, primarily along lake/sea breeze boundaries.
Will carry VCTS for terminals in these areas, and will probably
need to amend one or more for direct impacts (IFR or lower
visibilities, MVFR ceilings) during the afternoon. Dissipation
should occur with the loss of surface heating toward sunset.
Inland terminals may be slightly more favored for convection
Sunday afternoon as Gulf ridging expands a bit.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

No significant departures from previous marine forecast with
potential for thunderstorms the main concern for marine interests.
Scattered storms, mainly late night/early morning each day, with
the potential to produce locally gusty winds and hazardous seas.
Low level wind fields will be light enough where we can`t
eliminate the possibility of waterspouts during the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  74  93 /  30  60  30  60
BTR  77  97  78  96 /  40  70  20  50
ASD  76  95  77  94 /  40  60  20  60
MSY  79  94  79  93 /  30  60  10  60
GPT  77  93  78  93 /  30  50  10  50
PQL  76  97  77  95 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW