Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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985 FXUS64 KLIX 111137 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 637 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure continues to dominate the southern tier of the US down into the Gulf and over the northern tier a weak trough over the upper midwest to the east coast and a weak ridge over the west and plains. The ridge will maintain drier air with PWs in the 1.6 range, which is slightly higher than normal for this time of year. However, the subsidence under the high pressure will suppress most chances for rain, with the exception being sea breeze generated lift driving some low convection. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s, but the dry air will maintain Td around 70 today and under 75 tomorrow, keeping the apparent temps just under the 108 limit for heat headlines. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Monday into Tuesday the high pressure weakens slightly as the trough digs south, but it also becomes centered right over us as the trough pushes to the east. This allows some moisture flow out of the Gulf to push PWs back up into the more seasonable range around 2.0. Convective Temps, CAPES in the 2500 range, and Downdraft CAPEs around 1000 in the afternoons could drive some thunderstorms. These do provide some welcome relief from the heat, but may be later in the afternoon after maximum Apparent Temps have been reached. With these overall conditions, we are looking at high likelihoods from Tuesday through the end of the period of Apparent Temps in the 108- 112 range which will necessitate Heat Advisories across the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure continues over the area with light winds and mostly clear skies with no convection. This brings VFR conditions to all terminals through the forecast period. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Light winds below 10 knots and seas below 2 feet are expected through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure remains in firm control of the area. The only concern will be the threat of thunderstorms developing in the early morning hours along a land-breeze boundary. These storms could produce some locally higher winds and waves for brief periods of time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 94 70 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 BTR 98 76 100 78 / 10 0 10 0 ASD 97 75 98 77 / 10 0 10 0 MSY 96 79 96 79 / 10 0 20 0 GPT 96 77 96 78 / 10 10 10 0 PQL 99 74 100 77 / 10 0 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS