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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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909 FXUS64 KLIX 102049 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 349 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A deep layer ridge axis extending eastward from Texas will continue to the dominant feature over the area on Sunday and Monday. The ridge will weaken slightly on Monday as a longwave northern stream trough digs into the eastern third of the CONUS, but the overall upper level flow regime will remain out of the northwest. Tomorrow, the strong subsidence in place beneath this ridge will keep the mid-levels very dry and warm resulting in lower than average precipitable water values of around 1.5 to 1.7 inches. A strong mid-level capping inversion will prohibit rainfall development over most of the CWA, but enough low level convergence along a weak seabreeze boundary in coastal Southeast Louisiana could support a few low topped showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will once again start out a bit cooler than average with lows in the low to mid 70s across the northern half of the CWA. Highs will climb back into the mid 90s due to the dry airmass in place. Fortunately, the dry air will keep heat index values in check at between 100 and 105. As the upper level ridge weakens over the area on Monday, subsidence will decrease and mid-level moisture will begin to return. Precipitable water values will increase back to more normal levels of around 1.8 to 1.9 inches, and this help to push heat index values back to near advisory levels. However, there should still be just enough boundary layer mixing in the afternoon hours to keep afternoon heat indices below 108 for most of the CWA, and we may go one more day without a heat advisory. Even with some slightly drier air lingering, temperatures will warm back into the mid 90s after starting out in the 70s. Much like on Sunday, there should be enough low level convergence along the seabreeze boundary in coastal Southeast Louisiana to support some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon hours as MLCAPE approaches 1000 J/KG. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 From Tuesday through the end of the week, the deep layer ridge axis will become centered directly over the forecast area. This ridge is not unusual to see in the Summer months, and a return to a more typical Summer pattern of diurnally driven afternoon convection along developing seabreeze and lakebreeze boundaries can be expected. This pattern will be supported by a seasonably moist atmosphere as noted by precipitable water values of around 2 inches. Convective development will tend to occur in the mid to late afternoon hours, and the convection could turn locally strong at times with gusty winds being the primary threat. This is supported by downdraft CAPE of around 1000 J/KG each afternoon and fairly steep lapse rates in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, the delayed convective development each day will allow temperatures to push into the mid to upper 90s before any cooling relief can occur, and the increase in humidity will cause afternoon heat indices to climb to around 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat headlines can be expected as we move into the mid and latter part of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all of the terminals as high pressure keeps dry and stable conditions in place. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Light winds below 10 knots and seas below 2 feet are expected through the end of next week as a broad ridge of high pressure remains in firm control of the area. The only concern will be the threat of thunderstorms developing in the morning hours along a land- breeze. These storms could produce some locally higher winds and waves for brief periods of time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 94 72 97 / 0 10 0 10 BTR 74 97 76 98 / 0 10 0 20 ASD 74 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 20 MSY 81 96 81 96 / 0 20 0 30 GPT 76 95 77 95 / 0 10 10 20 PQL 75 96 75 96 / 0 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG