371
FXUS64 KLIX 050453
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1153 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A strong upper level ridge remains draped across the north
central Gulf Coast late this week and into the upcoming weekend.
This will keep the conditions rather hot. At the surface weak low
level onshore flow will continue to help draw rich gulf moisture
into the region keeping the short term very similar to the last
several days with heat and humidity being the primary story.
Although, with mid level moistening (in fact a PWAT of nearly 2.6"
a record) will help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Obviously, with such high precipitable waters, rainfall rates
will be highly efficent so will need to monitor for localized
flooding both this afternoon and Friday afternoon, especially the
flood favored low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Again, the heat will be a continuing issue. Although with rain and
convection sending out lots of outflow boundaries and an early
initiation, this will mitigate a bit. However, if coverage is a
bit more limited in terms of convection and/or a later start, it
will not take much to get heat index values to dangerous levels
once again. Issued a heat advisory for the MS Gulf Coast and
around the more urban areas. It`s very much borderline, but with a
continuation of the Independence Day holiday and plenty of
outdoor activities, decided to lean a bit more toward needing the
advisory than otherwise. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Going into the weekend our area will remain under the influence of
the upper level high that will begin to decrease in strength and
as upper level weakness develops over the Red River Valley
upstream. This will help suppress the ridge more to the east of
our region. A weak surface boundary will move southward as well
keeping rain chances going across the region at least diurnally
driven in nature. As for Hurricane Beryl, the system looks to
continue to move generally west northwest over the western
Caribbean and eventually emerging over the Bay of Campeche this
weekend before reaching its final destination of northeastern
Mexico or Deep South Texas. No direct impacts here locally outside
a slight increase in swell (see marine section).

Ridging looks to remain in place through much of the medium range,
however, the weakness across the Red River Valley doesn`t really
go anywhere leading to roughly a similar forecast each day through
the long term period. Again, diurnally driven convection during
the day and continued hot conditions. Although with higher
convective coverage, the heat may be mitigated, limiting the need
for additional heat headlines. After Beryl makes eventual
landfall, our region will fall under a more active southwesterly
flow again leading to the thought that the medium range will be
somewhat on the wetter or more active side and deep tropical
moisture will continue to stream in from the southwest around the
western periphery of the Bermuda high across the southwest
Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Most terminals were VFR at 05z, however, there were a few with
visibility restrictions. Considering how many communities have had
fireworks this evening, some question whether it`s fog/mist or
smoke in some areas. Regardless, will carry some visibility
restrictions as appropriate. Will mention IFR visibilities toward
sunrise at KMCB, where they had similar conditions this morning,
and additionally, had 2 inches of rain in the area during the day.

Likely to see MVFR ceilings and SHRA at southern terminals,
as early as 10z or so, but spreading to most or all terminals by
mid-morning. In most cases, precipitation won`t be particularly
long lasting at any one time, as with no wind shear to speak of,
the showers/storms are likely to rain themselves out in place.
Moisture levels are pretty much at climatological maxima with
precipitable water values near 2.5 inches. That combined with
forecast convective temperatures near 90F, means it is unlikely
for terminals to keep unrestricted ceilings/visibilities for
significant periods during daytime heating. MVFR ceilings likely
to be prevailing for most of the day. For now will use VCTS during
the afternoon hours at all terminals, but later shifts will
likely need to do occasional amendments for direct impacts at a
few terminals. IFR or lower visibilities will occur if a terminal
is directly impacted. As has been the case for the last several
days, most land based convection will dissipate by 01z Saturday,
if not sooner.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Generally light onshore flow is expected going into the upcoming
weekend. Waves may gradually increase as a swell develops in
response to Hurricane Beryl moving into the southern and
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and eventually into Tamaulipas
Mexico or Deep South Texas/Rio Grande Valley. Outside of the
increase in wave heights and swell, locally higher winds and seas
will be possible in and around diurnally driven
convection...mostly late nights or during the early morning hours.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  91  73  88 /  20  80  50  60
BTR  80  95  78  92 /  20  70  40  60
ASD  78  93  78  92 /  20  70  40  70
MSY  80  93  80  92 /  20  70  30  70
GPT  77  91  77  91 /  30  70  40  60
PQL  77  93  77  94 /  30  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ048-056>060-
     064-065-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF