423
FXUS64 KLCH 091723
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows a cool front draped along the
coast, with sfc obs indicating dewpoints as low as the mid/upper 60s
across inland portions of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a 2ry
boundary is noted extending from the DFW Metroplex through the
ArkLaTex to the MS Delta region. Water vapor imagery shows our old
friend the mid/upper-level ridge hanging on as it extends esewd from
the Desert SW, although its ern periphery in vicinity of the
Atchafalaya Basin may be weakening under the influence of a
disturbance dropping through troffing over the sern CONUS. Sfc obs
indicated partly cloudy skies ongoing, especially across the srn
zones...well inland, skies were clear. Outside of some nocturnal
convection ahead of the boundary over the coastal waters, regional
88Ds are quiet at this time.

The main story for today across the area will be the continued
encroachment of somewhat lower dewpoint air, with decreasing low-
level moisture behind the departing sfc boundary also resulting in
clearing skies and no precip. Temperatures behind the weak front are
progged to run a few degrees lower than the past day or two, but the
lower dewpoints will really make their mark, with the combo of the
two leading to much lower apparent temps. With heat index values
largely expected to peak in the mid 100s (with the lower dewpoints
expected to reach cstl sern TX last, perhaps a location or two could
see criteria for a very short time this afternoon), plan to continue
the previous thinking of no heat advisory for today for the forecast
area.

For the vast majority of the forecast area, Saturday is largely
unchanged from today with dry weather, high temps in the mid 90s and
peak heat index values of 105F or less. However, slim rain chances
do return to the farthest sern areas for the afternoon as the
lingering sfc boundary, an approaching erly wave over the nrn Gulf
and max heating could spawn a few showers/storms down that way.

The Sunday forecast sees the very small POPs inching slightly inland
over lower Acadiana as the sfc boundary begins slipping back nwd and
weaker capping persists over that region. Temperatures look to warm
maybe a degree or two, but with an onshore flow not expected to
develop until late, dewpoints aren`t progged to respond in time for
apparent temps to climb to criteria...thus another day looks to be
heat advisory free to end the short term.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

The long term period begins on Monday with the area largely still
under the influence of a mid/upper-level ridge extending from the
Four Corners region esewd. Meanwhile, the sfc boundary is progged to
continue lifting nwd across the forecast area. Forecast soundings
show moisture continuing to gradually increase, primarily in the
lower levels behind the frontal boundary. Combo of these features
with the weakened cap, an afternoon sea breeze and daytime heating
could lead to a few showers/storms over the srn zones, where slim
POPs persist. Tuesday sees the small rain chances spread farther
inland with all but the nrn tier of zones containing a precip
mention for the afternoon as moisture further deepens behind the
departing boundary.

Rain chances begin a gradual decrease on Wednesday as the mid/upper-
level ridge axis begins building back over the region.

As the sfc front makes its nwd trek across the area, temps/dewpoints
begin a slow climb which should lead to apparent temps again
reaching advisory criteria over portions of the forecast area early
next week.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Light to moderate N to NE winds and mostly clear skies will
continue through the forecast period. VFR conditions will continue
to prevail.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Mainly light/somewhat variable winds are expected over the coastal
waters for the next couple of days with the sfc front meandering
over the nwrn Gulf. Thereafter as the front lifts back nwd, a srly
flow will return. No headlines are expected on the CWF through the
next several days.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  76  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  77  98  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  78  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17